Ebook: Critical Infrastructure Protection in Response to Terrorist Attacks

The widespread unrest in many parts of the world, including the full-scale war in Ukraine, has raised many new challenges for the protection of critical infrastructure. The material presented here covers the issue of protecting critical infrastructure in full, and suggests ways to protect these objects. The Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) held from 23–25 October 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey, addressed the main priorities of the NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme, namely the promotion of mutually beneficial cooperation on issues of common interest, including international efforts to address new security challenges such as the fight against terrorism. The workshop became a powerful event in which experts from all invited countries shared their experiences and explained the use of innovative computer modeling methods and technologies to solve the problem of protecting critical infrastructure and increasing its resilience to explosions due to terrorist attacks. The main goal of this workshop, namely to hold an intensive training event to aggregate ideas from those specialists and other interested parties who directly conduct or develop methods of protecting critical infrastructure from terrorist attacks, was fully realized.

Thus the main goals of the ARW were achieved, with experts in the field of critical infrastructure protection from Ukraine, Turkey, Poland, and other NATO member and partner countries involved in a conversation about modern computer modeling of the impact of an explosion on infrastructure, together with proposed training for psychological resistance to terrorism and military actions, to minimize the risks of potential emergencies at critical infrastructure facilities.

The main results of the ARW were the development of those new competencies, knowledge, and skills required for an effective response to such terrorist attacks as may occur on critical infrastructure facilities. A set of proposals was developed and discussed, based on innovative methods of computer modeling to minimize the risks inherent in explosions at critical infrastructure facilities. Because specialists from various areas of anti-terrorist activity had been invited to the workshop, a significant network of researchers in the field of critical infrastructure protection in response to terrorist attacks has now been formed. An active brainstorming session of highly qualified experts was held to further strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure in response to terrorist attacks, and another result of the ARW was the development of a new research platform for the organization and implementation of new research projects aimed at preventing risks from terrorist attacks.

All of these results are presented in this book.

October 2023

Kutahya, Turkey

Kyiv, Ukraine

Editors

Umran Ercetin

Natalia Zuievska

Oksana Vovk

Computational Fluid Dynamics and Finite Element Analysis are computational modeling techniques used to simulate the effects of many physical phenomena and predict the results. Many physical phenomena can be solved with these modeling techniques, from mechanical analysis to heat and mass transfer, electromagnetic analysis to explosion analysis. When a physical event is modeled correctly, and the software settings are made perfectly, valuable information and values can be obtained without performing experiments on this physical event, and risk analysis and designs can be made according to these data. When the computational modeling technique is used to model explosions, precious information about physical quantities such as shock wave propagation, pressure and temperature distributions, and flow rates after the explosion event is obtained. With this information obtained, precautions that can be taken to reduce the effects of explosion risks can be determined, and safer buildings and infrastructures can be designed. Due to explosions that occur almost everywhere in the world because of war or terrorist attacks, many buildings and infrastructures are damaged, and living beings are injured or die. In this study, information is given about some of the computer software and their features used to predict the reactions of buildings against explosion risk and to make them safer.

Analysis of the provision of protection of critical energy infrastructure facilities that are often destroyed under the action of a shock wave, which affects the stability of Ukraine’s energy systems. Modeling of a rocket explosion and the distribution of destructive pressures from shock waves in the conditions of dense urban development was carried out using the ANSYS AUTODYN software product. The calculated parameters of the boundary of the shock wave distribution 15 ms after detonation were determined, and the maximum pressure values of the blast wave at the manometric points of the transformer substation structures were determined in different conditions of their location: surface location and underground. The purpose of the work is to develop a methodology for assessing the stability of transformer substations as elements of the critical infrastructure of an urbanized space in war conditions during the bombardment of residential areas with rockets. This will make it possible to develop measures to preserve the structural integrity of the transformer substation building itself. Methods. Finite element analysis of the stress-strain state of a concrete structure based on the elastic-plastic model and the generalized Hook-Brown failure criterion. This made it possible to simulate the zone of intense destruction of the concrete structure of the underground and surface location.

Forecasting the destruction of shallow subway stations by explosions is critical for ensuring the safety of passengers and subway personnel. The article discusses the methods of modeling and analysis of destruction in the Ansys program that may occur as a result of explosions at shallow stations. Using modern computer models and software for the simulation of explosive processes, the behavior of structures under the influence of blast waves is investigated. Particular attention is paid to identifying the most vulnerable areas of the plants and developing recommendations for increasing their stability. Various explosion scenarios are considered, including different explosion powers and locations. In addition, materials and design solutions that can minimize the consequences of explosions are studied. The research results can be used to develop effective safety measures and improve existing engineering solutions. Thus, the work aims to improve the level of subway safety by introducing scientifically based methods for predicting and preventing station destruction from explosions.

The paper describes motor vehicles’ flow in controlled zones in the vicinity of critical infrastructure facilities using the mathematical apparatus of Markov processes. It is shown that there is a functional dependence that connects the average statistical intensity of motor vehicle traffic to any fragment of the situational background of motor vehicles operating in controlled zones near critical infrastructure objects. It is determined by the active fragment of the traffic background with the intensity of traffic vehicles registered for a period of time by the system operator and the number of violators recorded during the same time. A mathematical description of the situational background of motor vehicles in controlled zones near critical infrastructure objects using the mathematical apparatus of Markov processes is presented. It is shown that the number of violators or abnormal situations detected with motor vehicles operating near the protected critical infrastructure depends on the number of fragments of the traffic background, number of working video systems in the controlled area and their mode of operation. One of the options for bringing situational background of motor vehicles in the controlled zones near critical infrastructure objects from an extreme state to a stationary one is proposed based on the solution of the Kolmogorov-Chapman equation and the original interpretation of this solution. It is shown that return of the background from abnormal state to normal state will be determined by the number of measures taken by the physical protection service of the protected object together with the competent state authorities.

A specific mathematical approach to managing the security of protected strategic objects in the interest of its protection from various types of terrorist threats is considered. The authors propose a mathematical model for managing the security of protected strategic objects. This is done based on an analysis of the primary control laws of a distributed system and consideration of options for distributed control of the method described by the Dirichlet problem, the Neumann problem, and the distributed system.

The article shows new information and technical method development to prevent emergency situations of a terrorist nature using databases of motor vehicles obtained from external surveillance video systems. Emergency situations of a terrorist nature over the past decades and the possibility of their occurrence at critical infra to prevent emergencies of a terrorist nature at protected objects were considered. New information and technical methods of preventing emergency situations of a terrorist nature have been developed using motor vehicle databases obtained from external surveillance video systems.

The performance of structures under explosion is vital to create safer buildings for occupants. Significant damages occur where the explosions produce high pressure and loading rates, such as structural failure, progressive collapse, and extensive plastic deformation. Most of the building materials might transform into dangerous things that can lead to the primary cause of death and injury of the occupants. Explosions can bend beams and pipes, damage columns, push exterior walls inward, shear off parts of the building, push floors up, push the roof up, and blow out windows, all of which may contribute to the collapse of the building. Impact damage results from weapon fragments and debris, such as shards of window glass, bricks, and soil being mobilised by the blast. The heat from the explosion can also ignite fires. Robust materials that can withstand an explosion can be chosen for explosion-proof building design. Besides, reinforcing structural components, installing blast walls, elastomeric spraying the masonry, and adding plastic layers to glass to keep shard were analyzed in this study.

The oil and gas industry is a critical component of the global economy, providing the energy resources that power industries, transportation, and homes worldwide. However, this vital infrastructure faces various security threats that can have devastating consequences, including physical attacks, cyber intrusions, internal risks, legal and regulatory challenges, and environmental hazards. Understanding and mitigating these threats is essential to ensure oil and gas assets’ safe and reliable operation. The key security threats facing the industry, examining their nature, impact, and potential consequences. It provides a comprehensive overview of the diverse vulnerability’s companies must address, from terrorist attacks and sabotage to malicious software and insider threats. The article also delves into the legal and regulatory risks associated with non-compliance, changing legislation, and environmental protection, highlighting the importance of proactive compliance management. The article offers strategies for developing robust, multilayered security measures to protect oil and gas infrastructure. It emphasizes the need for a collaborative approach involving stakeholders from the industry, government agencies, and local communities. By prioritizing security and resilience, oil and gas companies can safeguard their assets, maintain business continuity, and contribute to the broader social and economic stability that depends on the reliable supply of energy resources.

The research focuses on the protection of infrastructures against the threats posed by Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), specifically Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDs). The primary aim is to develop and test mitigation solutions to enhance the blast resistance of reinforced concrete blast walls (T-walls) and other critical infrastructure components. Used numerical modeling to simulate the behavior of protective coatings and EADs under blast conditions. Developed prototypes of EAD solutions, such as lateral compression tubes and invertubes, and tested them under controlled conditions to evaluate their performance. Elastomeric coatings significantly increased the flexural strength of perforated brick walls, resulting in improved resistance to blast impacts. Static and dynamic tests demonstrated substantial improvements, with experimental data showing credible enhancement under explosion conditions. The advanced protective coatings developed through the PRINSE-APC project effectively reduced the projection of lethal fragments from façade elements. The research offers practical, cost-effective solutions for improving the safety and resilience of infrastructures against explosive threats. The developed technologies and methodologies can be directly applied to military operations and civilian infrastructure protection. The guidelines and best practices established from this research provide a foundation for future advancements in blast mitigation and infrastructure protection.

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation, attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure (including energy generation and distribution facilities and hydropower) have been systematic. Among the intentional or unintentional damage to many small hydraulic structures, damage to the dams of power plants of the Dnipro River cascade should be highlighted: repeated strikes on the Dnipro hydroelectric power station, which stopped its functioning as an energy generation facility, but did not violate the structural integrity of the dam, and the destruction of the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, which led to long-term catastrophic damage of an economic, humanitarian, and environmental nature. The dam of the Kremenchuk hydroelectric power station forms the largest reservoir of the Dnipro and Dniester cascades. The purpose of this study is to assess the resistance of the dam of the Kremenchuk hydroelectric power station using numerical simulations in an explicit formulation in the Ansys Autodyn software in the event of the dam being damaged by a strike using a conventional weapon.