Ebook: Terrorist Threats in North Africa from a NATO Perspective

Preface

Recent events have shown that North Africa has become a hotbed of terrorist activity in recent years. This area cannot be ignored in the fight against terrorism because of the potential threat to NATO's southern flank.

This book presents the proceedings of the NATO Centre of Excellence – Defence against Terrorism (COE-DAT) Advanced Research Workshop entitled the “Terrorist Threat in North Africa from a NATO Perspective,” held in Ankara, Turkey, on 19–20 November 2013. The workshop brought together 21 participants from 10 countries and consisted of three sessions: The Changing Face of North African Terrorism, The Role of the State in North African Counterterrorism Efforts, and International Approaches to Countering Terrorism in the Maghreb/Sahel. During these sessions, presentations by ten expert speakers from five countries were followed by a detailed discussion and debate. The workshop concluded with a summary of all the topics reflected in the individual papers presented. Articles resulting from the workshop are presented in order of presentation.

The keynote address of the workshop was given by Professor Yonah Alexander of the Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies on the topic of “Terrorism in North Africa and the Sahel: Threats and Responses.” In his article, he recaps recent studies on terrorism and then focuses on two particular issues in Africa – Ebola and the rise in terrorism incidents, and shows how this plays out in the countries of the region. In closing he addresses some long-term and short-term measures that should be taken to address the issue of terrorism in North Africa.

The second article discusses the talk on “The Changing Nature of North African Terrorism” by Professor Yahia H. Zoubir, where he discussed the changing aspects of the threat from Muslim groups in North Africa. He stresses differences between political Islam, which has been a historic force in North Africa, versus the rise of Salafi jihadism. Many of the most violent groups are splinter groups from the main groups. In his analysis, professor Zoubir cites the overthrow of the Shah of Iran and the return of figters from Afghanistan as major factors in the changing nature of the threat in the region.

In his article on “The Rise of al-Qaeda in North Africa: AQIM and its Role in the Region,” Mr. Gyula Gazdık of the Strategic Defense Research Institute in Budapest, discusses the ‘colorful’ history of AQIM – Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, dating back to the independence of Algeria. He believes the Maghreb region is critical as one of the key energy suppliers of Europe and America, and is very significant from the point of view of the Western Mediterranean security. AQIM emerged from the harsh legacy of Algeria's civil war of the 1990s and he characterizes AQIM of having had some success, but it also has not able to transform itself into a regional organization and this may prevent it from expanding into the regional force that it desires to be.

Mr. Jean-Charles Brisard addresses the financing of terrorism in the fourth article entitled “Financing Terrorism in North Africa,” where he discusses the financial resources and funding methods of the North African terrorist organizations. These organizations have been largely influenced by independence and a change from a centralized organization to a decentralized network of autonomous groups and cells. He discusses the trends in kidnapping foreigners for ransom, which has been particularly lucrative for them and has increased cooperation between organizations. One of the problems is that kidnapping for ransom is not specifically addressed in any of the terrorist conventions. In order to combat this phenomenon, the international community will need to work together collectively, as well as at the national level, to strengthen the prohibitions against such activity.

In the fifth article, “The Conflict in Northern Mali: Beyond Terrorism,” Helen Wilandh of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute addresses ethnic tensions and intercommunal violence that erupted in light of the crisis in 2012. She shows how the resurgence in the north inflamed an increase in ethnic tensions, resulting in conflicts between local communities, ethnic groups and tribes. To her, any long-term solution must include genuine attempts to address the fundamental problems that have been feeding the conflict for many years, such as neglect by the central government. She also points out that external strategies should have an important role as an intermediary between the state and local communities to build (re)alliances.

The “Legal Framework of Military Operations against Terrorism in North Africa” is the title of the presentation and article by Larry D. White, who addresses the concept of the peacetime rules of counterterrorism in contrast to the wartime rules of counterterrorism. Although the peacetime rules will apply in most circumstances, counterterrorist forces need to understand both in order to be effective in all situations. The article focuses on the practical application of those rules as well as the pitfalls and changing landscape in this area.

Next, “Problems of State Inefficiency and Terrorism in North Africa,” by Professor Maria Bordas of the National School of Public Administration, Budapest, examines how state inefficiency in North Africa has led to an increase of terrorism in these countries. Through analysis of the aspects of state inefficiency that are typical as reasons for terrorism in North Africa, she looks at both general phenomena and state-specific ones. The main point of the article is that terrorism cannot be defeated by the military itself, but by a complex development of the state functions which are capable of eliminating the roots of terrorism.

Professor Abdel Mohsen Soliman Bakr of the National Research Center, Cairo writes on “The Relationship between International Terrorism and Terrorism in North Africa” in the eighth article. He starts off by showing how international terrorism has become the most serious threat to global peace, security and development, to undermine the most cherished values and fundamental principles of the 21st Century including development, democracy, human rights and freedom. He contends that because of weapons, human/drug trafficking and political unrest, North Africa has become a hot spot for terrorism so it is also a region of growing importance in global efforts to counter terrorism. He discusses how the main terrorist threat in this region arises from al-Qaeda and the inability of African states to control their territory and to protect potential targets from terrorist assaults.

Following that, Mr. Anthony J. Banks of the U.S. European Command writes on “An Indiscriminate Threat: Terrorist and Violent Extremist Organization Threat,” where Africa is becoming more and more of a concern on the counterterrorist front. The U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM) has been stood up to address the military issues associated with this continent, with counterterrorism foremost. The command has identified a number of trends that will affect the continent in the coming ten years and developed a plan consistent with U.S. national guidance to address these concerns and help Africa and African nations develop. The security landscape in North Africa is extremely complex and has to be considered in a broader context. The only effective response to a networked problem is a networked solution, comprised of partnerships focused on shared goals and desired outcomes.

The last article, “Assessing Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism in the Maghreb,” by Valentina Bartolucci of the University of Pisa, Italy, addresses how the worsening of socio-economic conditions in North Africa, as well as the political turmoil in the Middle East, have further fuelled the rise of political and radical terrorist movements in the Maghreb and neighboring areas. In doing so, she provides an overview of the threat and spread of terrorism in the Maghreb, assessing the counterterrorism approaches of Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. The analysis reveals that the actual security situation in the region is particularly volatile, but also that the cards of both an Islamist threat and the menace of terrorism have been at times overplayed by politicians and the media.

With our compliments, we present these articles as away to further the understanding of terrorism in North Africa with a view to assist with the development of counterterrorism to combat this threat.

János Tomolya, PhD

Colonel, Hungarian Army

Workshop Director

Larry D. White, J.D.

Major, U.S. Air Force (Retired)

Assistant Workshop Director

Abstract

A series of recent conferences and reports have focused on the problems in North Africa, which can be boiled down to two – Ebola and terrorism. Although the fight against Ebola is getting some attention, the rise in number of terrorist incidents has captured the attention of governments worldwide in order to try to come to grips with actions needed to combat and extinguish this threat. Focusing international attention on the region can help enable the seeds of conflict resolution, political accommodation, economic and social development, and national reconciliation to emerge and reduce the forces of instability and chaos. The emergence of the ‘Islamic State,’ whose stated goal is establishing a ‘caliphate’ across the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Asia, is of particularly ominous concern. ‘Islamic State-affiliates’ have recently carried out deadly attacks in Libya and Egypt's Sinai, and the group is gaining allies elsewhere in the region. Indeed, these extremist political and social entities are becoming increasingly linked, formally or informally, in a ‘holy alliance’ of ‘like-minded’ movements, as well as ‘strange bedfellows’ intent on trafficking, kidnapping, and violent extremism. The war the international community, particularly the West, is waging is generational, institutional, and unavoidable, but there are solutions that can be achieved based on shared values and mutual interests.

Abstract

Terrorism in North Africa is not a stagnant phenomenon but one that is constantly evolving with changing conditions. Whereas previously these organizations were nationalistic in nature, now there are more international connections, including with drug trafficking, that may herald a drift away from ideology and reflect a more criminal approach. Most of the opposition to governments is rooted in broken promises of development. There were two major turning points in the past that have resulted in the situation of today. The first was the overthrow of the Iranian Shah in 1979 and the second was the return of “Arab Afghans” in the late 1990s. These two events energized the opposition to north African governments that chance was possible. If this phenomena is to be defeated, it is necessary to use troops coupled with other programs to address real needs.

Abstract

The group currently known as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb has a colorful history dating back to the independence of Algeria. The Maghreb geographically includes Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. The Maghreb region, which is at the meeting point of Europe, Africa and the Middle East, is one of the key energy suppliers of Europe and America. Owing to their geopolitical position the role of these countries is very significant from the point of view of the Western Mediterranean security. AQIM emerged from the harsh legacy of Algeria's civil war of the 1990s and government forces' eventual containment of the radical Islamist insurgency. Starting out as the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) in resistance to cancellation of elections, it later became the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) that merged in al-Qaeda in 2006. Although AQIM has had some success, it has not able to transform itself into a regional organization because of internal conflicts. Although it could be a major terrorist force at least problems in the organization may prevent it from expanding into the regional force that it desires to be.

Abstract

Financial resources and funding methods of the North African terrorist organizations have been largely influenced by their independence and the change from a centralized organization to a decentralized network of autonomous groups and cells. Although often associated with drug trafficking, this is an indirect source of funds for the groups, but kidnapping foreigners for ransom has been particularly lucrative for them. In the course of these operations, there is increased cooperation between organizations. One of the problems is that kidnapping for ransom is not specifically addressed in any of the terrorist conventions. In order to combat this phenomenon, the international community will need to work together collectively, as well as at the national level, to strengthen the prohibitions against such activity.

Abstract

Ethnic tensions have long existed in Mali, and intercommunal violence erupted in light of the crisis in 2012. The current resurgence in the north has inflamed an increase in ethnic tensions, and armed groups in the north have splintered into conflicts between local communities, ethnic groups and tribes

For example, Ansar Dine's Berabiche Arabs in January formed their own brigade, Ansar al-Sharia. IRIN, “Mali Conflict Inflames Ethnic Tensions,” AllAfrica, at http://allafrica.com/stories/201310241480.html (last visited 07 Sep. 2014), see also Sarah Halifa-Legrand and Farid Aïchoune, “MALI. La mosaïque de l'armée islamiste,” Le Nouvel Observateur (18 January 2013), available at http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/guerre-au-mali/20130115.OBS5442/mali-la-mosaique-de-l-armee-islamiste.html (last visited 07 Sep. 2014). For more information about Ansar al-Sharia, see GCTAT, “Oumar Ould Hamaha: A Case Study of the Bridges between Three Groups,” at http://www.gctat.org/fr/analyses-rapports-et-notes/29-ranoc/220-oumar-ould-hamaha-a-case-study-of-the-bridges-between-three-groups.html (last visited 07 Sep. 2014). However their leader, Oumar Ould Hamaha, was killed by French airstrike on 8 March 2014. Baba Ahmed, “UN mission: Mali Jihadist Spokesman Hamaha Killed,” Associated Press (14 March 2014), at http://bigstory.ap.org/article/un-mission-mali-jihadist-spokesman-killed (last visited 07 Sep. 2014). There were ethnic clashes between Tuareg rebels and black civilians in July 2013. Alex Duval Smith, “Mali unrest: Kidal's Deadly Race Riots,” BBC News (19 July 2013), available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23379122 (last visited 07 Sep. 2014).

. The conflict degenerated into conflicts between several ethnic groups. ethnic groups have been systematically associated with, and suspected to have colluded with, radical armed movements, without no clear indication of collaboration. Any long-term solution must include genuine attempts to address the fundamental problems that have been feeding the conflict for many years. The northern regions have long suffered from neglect by the central government, despite the undertaken development programs. In light of the low state capacity and presence contributing to a feeling of marginalization of northern communities, and due to the presence of weak institutions, external strategies should have an important role as an intermediary between the state and local communities with a wide range of instruments. Furthermore, social cohesion is of great relevance to any possible solution to the crisis. The communities living in northern Mali need to be connected to each other somehow to make a living, a condition of their survival and thus of cessation of violent acts. This can only be done by building (re)alliances and efficiently working with strategies that do not neglect both local and central authorities.

Abstract

The legal environment for counterterrorist operations can be complex because there are two possible scenarios for application – wartime and peacetime. Normally counterterrorist operations are conducted under peacetime rules with prosecution under national criminal laws conforming to standards set with international human rights. However, in some cases international humanitarian law, or the law of armed conflict will apply, which is based on the Geneva Conventions of 1949. Knowing which rules will apply is very important. Although there is no comprehensive antiterrorism treaty yet, there are a number of terrorism treaties that do apply and should have been enacted into national criminal law. Counterterrorist forces are working as the agents of sovereign nations that use them to protect that sovereignty and the lives of the people in accordance with international law. At all times, maximum consideration for human rights, consistent with the mission, should be displayed by counterterrorist forces.

Abstract

This article examines how the state inefficiency in North Africa has led to an increase of terrorism in these countries. The reasons for the terrorism in these countries are fairly complex, and cannot be explained by just one attribute, like Islamic fundamentalism, but are closely related to state efficiency issues. This article will analyze the aspects of state inefficiency that are typical as the reasons for terrorism in North Africa, examining the countries one by one. That is, there are general phenomena which are closely related to the terrorism, but there are special features in these countries, too, which cannot be described by general tendencies. Finally, the article will conclude with strategies for developing the efficiency of the state which could serve as a tool for counterterrorism in North African countries. The main point of the study is that terrorism cannot be defeated by the military itself, but by a complex development of the state functions which are capable of eliminating the roots of terrorism.

Abstract

Terrorism is the unlawful, or threatened, use of violence against individuals or property to coerce and intimidate governments or societies for political objectives. More often than not the inevitable political objectives are couched in social, economic or religious terms. Terrorism is distinguished from common law crimes and other offences because the motivation is not for financial gain but a distinction critical in distinguishing terrorism from other organized criminal behavior. The physical targets for a terrorist attack may vary from state to state, from time to time, from attack to attack and would take into consideration the vigilance or relaxation of anti-terrorist measures related to potential targets. International terrorism has become the most serious threat to global peace, security and development. This unfortunate reality, along with all its manifestations around the world, and particularly in North Africa, undermine the most cherished values and fundamental principles of the 21st Century including development, democracy, human rights and freedom. North Africa is a region of growing importance in global efforts to counter terrorism. For the last decade, a significant number of terrorist attacks and operations have occurred in North Africa. In a region awash with weapons, human and drug trafficking and political unrest, North Africa has become a hot spot for terrorism. The main terrorist threat in this region arises from al Qaeda and the inability of African states to control their territory and to protect potential targets from terrorist assaults.

Abstract

Africa is becoming more and more of a concern on the counterterrorist front. The U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM) has been stood up to address the military issues associated with this continent, with counterterrorism foremost. The command has identified a number of trends that will affect the continent in the coming 10 years and developed a plan consistent with U.S. national guidance to address these concerns and help Africa and African nations develop. The security landscape in North Africa is extremely complex and has to be considered in a broader context. The only effective response to a networked problem is a networked solution, comprised of partnerships focused on shared goals and desired outcomes.

Abstract

The spectre of terrorism still afflicts North Africa. There is no state in the Maghreb which has not experienced terrorism and there are indications that the threat is on the rise. Moreover, the worsening of socio-economic conditions in the region as well as the political turmoil in the Middle East have further fuelled the rise of political and radical terrorist movements in the Maghreb and neighboring areas. This article aims to provide an overview of the threat and spread of terrorism in the Maghreb, and to assess the counter-terrorism approaches of the three countries under review – Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. The analysis reveals a story that is more complex and nuanced that one may assume and highlights the extent to which North Africa has been neglected in academic and policy debates on terrorism and counter-terrorism. It emerges that the actual security situation in the region is particularly volatile, but also that the cards of both an Islamist threat and the menace of terrorism have been at times overplayed by politicians and the media with lasting implications both in terms of human rights violations as well as the security point of view.