Ebook: Future Trends and New Approaches in Defeating the Terrorism Threat

As part of the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme, the Centre of Excellence – Defence against Terrorism (COE-DAT) conducted an advanced training course (ATC) entitled “Future Trends and New Approaches in Defeating the Terrorism Threat” during the period 23- 27 October 2011 in Algiers, Algeria. The course lectures were presented by eleven lecturers from five countries to 46 participants from five other countries. A number of the lecturers have provided articles to expand on their presentations, as detailed below.

The first article, entitled “Terrorism Overview” and written by Özden Çelik of COE-DAT, discusses the historical evolution and the causes of the terrorism as a form of political violence, by looking at the changing ideology, organization and structure, as well as motives and roots. It also briefly covers group and individual motivations, typology and tactics of terrorists.

“Respecting Human Rights while Countering Terrorism” is the second article and was written by Dominika Švarc of the International Court of Justice, The Hague. Her article examines the requirement for states to uphold human rights while countering terrorism, but focuses particularly on the main normative developments prompted by the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 and the ensuing intensification of counterterrorism efforts.

Suicide terrorism is the topic of the third article by Vesna Markovic of the Institute for the Study of Violent Groups. In “The Special Case of the Suicide Bomber,” she gives a brief history of suicide bombings, from the first modern suicide bombing in Lebanon in 1981 through June 30, 2011. Her research includes analysis of over 3,000 suicide bombings successfully carried out in 42 countries worldwide; she briefly covers group and individual motivations and a typology of suicide bombers, as well as tactics and trends in suicide bombings.

Zafar Nawaz Jaspal of Quaid-i-Azam University wrote the fourth article, “WMD Terrorism: Countermeasures,” where he discusses recent changes in the world order that have made it easier for terrorists to obtain materials associated with weapons of mass destruction. Although there have been a number of attempts made at weapons of mass destruction terrorism, the results have been generally unsuccessful, but that could change in the future, so the article addresses how states need to prepare to counter and recover from such acts with a comprehensive strategy.

“The Threat of Bioterrorism: The Regional and Global Facets,” by Ashok Vaseasta of Norwich University, is the fifth article that deals with the many facets of bioterrorism. In the article, he addresses challenges and policies, as well as the regional and global aspects of threats posed by various forms of bioterrorism. He reviews the pros and cons of various countermeasures and then makes policy recommendations to limit proliferation of the biological agents described.

In the first of her two articles, “Terrorism, Media, and Public Information,” Zeynep Sütalan of Middle East Technical University, in the sixth article, addresses how terrorism involves sending a message to the public in order to influence them in favor of the terrorists. In order to achieve its political aims and convey its message of fear, terrorism requires publicity provided by the media. This symbiotic relationship must be broken down to effectively fight terrorism through the efficient management of media relations.

The seventh article, and the second from Zeynep Sütalan, is entitled “Strategic Communications and Defense against Terrorism.” Strategic Communications (StratCom) is a relatively new term that lacks an agreed definition, but is generally associated with ‘winning the hearts and minds of the people.’ StratCom is the synchronization of all communication and information-related efforts towards a target audience to create, strengthen or preserve an opinion and attitude(s) to the advantage of the operation conducted or policy implemented. This article discusses what StratCom is and particularly deals with its employment by NATO in Afghanistan.

Richard Shultz is the author of the final two articles, with the eighth being “The 21^st Century Conflict Environment: Challenges Posed by a Multiplicity of Non-State Armed Group,” discussing how, in the post-Cold War environment, armed groups have begun to proliferate and the patterns of conflict have begun to change, but only a handful of specialists interpreted these developments as a harbinger of a changing international security and conflict environment. He explores how the line of reasoning advanced on this topic was rejected by the U.S. government's national security system. Each of these arguments ignores the changing context in which armed groups operated in the 1990s and into the 21^st Century that now make it possible for an armed group to challenge even major states strategically and in some cases to do so across the globe.

In the ninth and final article, Richard Schulz and three colleagues wrote on “The Sources of Instability in the Twenty-First Century: Weak States, Armed Groups, and Irregular Conflict,” where they discuss the more complex, seemingly unpredictable, irregular conflicts taking place around the globe. However, they believe these conflicts to have a discernible pattern; the sources of instability in the 21^st Century's conflict environment will largely result from the interplay between a proliferation in the number of weak and failing states with powerful armed groups, some of which are capable of causing major geopolitical damage in their own territory and beyond. Local, regional, and global armed groups can now challenge even major states in ways, and to degrees, not possible in the past.”

COE-DAT is pleased to present this collection of articles regarding the highly successful program in Algeria. I am grateful to all those who helped bring this program from conception to reality.

Uğur GÜRBÜZ

Colonel, TU-A

ATC Director

This article discusses the historical evolution and the causes of the terrorism as a form of political violence, by looking at the changing ideology, organization and structure, as well as motives and roots. First, the article examines the historical evolution of the terrorism, together with its goals and motivation. Second, it brings up the difficulties for defining terrorism by emphasizing historical and current challenges. In this part, the main pillars of the common definitions are also presented. Third, the last part of the article is dedicated to explain the main causes of the terrorism, with special attention to contextual, convictional, motivational and facilitating causes.

The fight against terrorism requires the maximum respect for human rights. If a nation disregards human rights in fighting terrorism, the nation loses respect as well as complicates the counterterrorism battle. This article examines the general requirement for States to uphold human rights while countering terrorism, focusing particularly on the main normative developments prompted by the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 and the ensuing intensification of international counterterrorism efforts.

This paper gives a brief history of suicide bombings, from the first modern suicide bombing in Lebanon in 1981 through June 30, 2011. This includes over 3,000 suicide bombings successfully carried out in 42 countries worldwide. It also briefly covers group and individual motivations and a typology of suicide bombers. Finally, the changes in tactics and trends in suicide bombings will be covered.

Recent changes in the world order have made it easier for terrorists to obtain materials associated with weapons of mass destruction. As the use of such materials would help the terrorists achieve their goals, it would be logical for them to conduct such terrorism. There have been a number of attempts made at terrorism with weapons of mass destruction, but thankfully the results have been generally unsuccessful. However, that could change in the future, so states need to be prepare to counter and recover from such acts. This article discusses this threats and the need for a comprehensive strategy to deal with it.

This article presents many facets of bioterrorism, in terms of challenges and policies, as well as the regional and global aspects of threats posed by various forms of bioterrorism, including synthetic genomics, dual-use technologies, and programmable functional biological materials. Policy recommendations to limit proliferation of biological agents are described. The pros and cons of programs such as international collegiate programs – iGEM, bio-brick, and other similar programs are discussed. Using advanced technological platforms, viz. nanotechnology, multiple sensors-networks, nanophotonics, biomimetics, advanced sciences convergence, and bioinformatics, effective countermeasures are reviewed for early detection and thwarting bioterrorism related threat vectors.

Terrorism is about sending a message to the public in order to influence them in favor of the terrorists. The terrorist message is fear and panic. Their message intends to coerce and intimidate governments due to the trust deficit between the government and the people. In order to achieve its political aims and convey its message of fear, terrorism requires publicity; this publicity is provided by the media. Between the media and terrorism, there is a symbiotic relationship where both parties depend on each other and benefit from such dependence. How to break down this symbiotic relationship between terrorism and media is a difficult question to answer when censorship is not only against the spirit of democracy, but it is also not possible to stop the flow of information today. At the time of terrorist attacks, efficient public information management is the key to maintain public confidence and support. Efficient public information management necessitates efficient management of media relations, which, in the end, facilitates the development of a responsible media.

Strategic Communications (StratCom) is a relatively new term which has almost become a buzzword in the political and military environments in the United States as well as NATO. It lacks an agreed definition, but is generally associated with ‘winning the hearts and minds of the people.’ It rests upon the awareness that current wars are fought or operations take place among the people and thus the human factor is important. Therefore, understanding, interacting, blending and communicating with the public is necessary. StratCom is the synchronization of all communication and information related efforts towards a target audience to create, strengthen or preserve an opinion and attitude(s) to the advantage of the operation conducted or policy implemented. Within this framework, this article discusses what StratCom is about and what its features and principles are. Then it seeks to explain the NATO approaches to StratCom and what kind of efforts has been made within the Alliance in this vein. The article finally focuses on the case of Afghanistan to elaborate on NATO-led ISAF efforts in terms of Strat Com.

Post-Cold War, armed groups of various kinds began to proliferate and the patterns of conflict were changing, but only a handful of specialists interpreted these developments as a harbinger of a changing international security and conflict environment. In the forefront was Martin van Creveld who contended that non-state actors would increasingly challenge the dominance of state power. With the exception of the U.S. Marine Corps, throughout the 1990s the line of reasoning advanced by van Creveld and a handful of others was persona non grata in the institutions that comprise the U.S. government's national security system. They rejected this argument as flawed and devoted few resources and attention to the challenges posed by terrorists, criminal syndicates and other non-state armed groups. They did so based on two main propositions: that nothing about these groups was new and that these groups did not pose a first-order security challenge to major states to include the United States, but rather they were ancillary security nuisances. Each of these arguments ignored the changing context in which armed groups operated in the 1990s and into the 21^st Century that now make it possible for an armed group to challenge even major states strategically and in some cases to do so across the globe.

The world has become more complex, with seemingly unpredictable irregular conflicts taking place around the globe. But there is a pattern to these clashes. They are not unpredictable but discernable. The sources of instability in the 21^st Century's conflict environment will largely result from the interplay between a proliferation in the number of weak and failing states with powerful armed groups, some of which are capable of causing major geopolitical damage in their own territory and beyond. Since the end of the Cold War, an array of armed groups has burgeoned in number and in the capabilities they have to conduct activities. They are diverse in terms of subtypes – terrorists, insurgents, criminals, militias – each varying in vision, mission, and capabilities employed. Local, regional, and global armed groups can now challenge even major states in ways, and to degrees, not possible in the past. This essay presents an analytic delineation and assessment of the makeup of 21^st Century armed groups and the sources of their empowerment.