Ebook: Practical Applications of Advanced Technologies for Enhancing Security and Defense Capabilities: Perspectives and Challenges for the Western Balkans

Dear readers,

The shifts and advancements in technology and their exploitation have become a new reality on a global level. These trends have a transformative effect in the security and defense sectors as well. These transformations and developments have stirred both challenges, but also opportunities for NATO and partner countries.

The role of technology is multifold. On the one side of the spectrum, cutting-edge technology has facilitated the emergence of new and unprecedented threats. It has its downsides that allow the terrorists or other non-state actors, as well as some non-NATO states (Russia and China), to utilize the new technology for their own purposes (e.g. to exploit personal data, to gather and misuse information, to acquire new methodologies and technologies against NATO and its partners, etc.).

On the other side of the spectrum, advanced technology and particularly AI technology has the potential to detect cyber intrusions, predict terrorist acts, to contribute the development of better systems for surveillance and reconnaissance and to assist the process of developing more effective responses to downplay the vulnerabilities to potential threats. This creates the need for NATO and its partners to develop strategies to catch up with the new fast-pacing trends of utilizing modern technologies.

The Western Balkans cannot be observed separately from global trends. As the threats to security are becoming more sophisticated, the strengthening of the defense and security systems depends highly upon the countries’ ability to keep abreast with the global trends and technological developments. The Western Balkan countries cannot employ effective measures without anticipating novel challenges and adjusting their capabilities in terms of the new and innovative technology in order to intercept the novel threats to security.

For some of the Western Balkan countries, the overall inexperience, limited research body and lack of sufficient understanding of how to implement the disruptive and cutting-edge technology for security purposes creates restrictions and weaknesses in the processes of tackling the contemporary challenges. There are numerous challenges for the military leadership in the Western Balkan countries in the context of the rapid developments that require important steps by NATO and partner countries in adjusting their capacities to the demands of the new security reality.

In that regard, the Euro-Atlantic Council of North Macedonia in cooperation with the Atlantic Council of Bosnia & Herzegovina hosted an Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) supported by the NATO SPS program entitled: “Practical Applications of Advanced Technologies for Enhancing Security and Defense Capabilities: Perspectives and Challenges for Western Balkans”.

The ARW was held in a hybrid format (limited to the presence of the core team only) and the lectures were conducted online from the period of 14th to 17th October 2021.

The primary objective of the ARW was to explore the primary applications of advanced technology (including AI and autonomous technology) for security and defense purposes, to raise the level of awareness and understanding among the key stakeholders regarding the practical potentials and main challenges of implementing advanced technology for purposes of strengthening the defense systems in Western Balkans, and to pitch the premises for the development of strategies for regional cooperation between public institutions, academia and private actors.

The workshop has brought together experts and decision-makers from relevant state institutions from the Western Balkan Region, NATO- and partner countries and provided a platform for discussion and exchange of best practices. The lectures were held by military and civilian experts employed in the institutional and CSO sector, administrative staff, young researchers and young professionals in the field of social sciences (security, politics and law) predominantly from Western Balkan countries, including from Albania, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia.

The event was opened with welcoming addresses by the high-level officials, such as the Prime Minister of the Republic of North Macedonia, Mr. Zoran Zaev, Mr. James Appathurai, NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs and Mr. Ismet Ramadani, President of the Euro-Atlantic Council of North Macedonia/Advisor of the PM. The Head of the NATO SPS Program, Dr. Deniz Beten, announced the lectures, by saying: “This workshop is an excellent occasion to continue the Programme’s efforts to promote greater understanding of the threat environment and responses in the region from the technological angle. It will explore the primary applications of advanced technology for security and defense purposes, from technical, political, legal and ethical point of views. Thus, this platform today is essential in bringing stakeholders from the region together to mitigate risks and embrace opportunities presented by advanced technologies, which will no doubt benefit many more partners and allied countries in future.”

The official working part of the ARW began with the first priority, focused on the political and strategic aspects of developing AI technology in the region of Western Balkans, the opportunities for cooperation between NATO and partner countries, and the possibilities for regional joint efforts and initiatives.

The priority of the next session or the second priority considered the technical and military aspects of AI. First, the participants were introduced to principal advanced technologies and applications in the field of security and defense, and then it proceeded in the context of their practical application in the cyber-defense domain.

The last priority of the ARW (the last session) concerns legal and ethical challenges for NATO and partner countries that can emerge in the process of employing AI and other advanced technologies.

The main goal of the ARW and of this book is to promote greater understanding and dialogue on the topic of AI in defense and security sectors in the Western Balkans. As such, the course and the book are investigating the role of AI and boosted cooperation between NATO and partner countries in the area of countering terrorist and cyber threats through the implementation of advanced and AI technology. It also promotes legal, policy and technical considerations and the development of joint preventive mechanisms by raising awareness, stimulating discussion and expanding knowledge regarding the role of advanced technology in the fields of security and defense.

May the workshop and the present book serve and be another effective contribution for the institutions and other relevant subjects in the Western Balkan region, for developing better regional capacities, promoting greater understanding on the topic and raising possibilities for future regional initiatives.

Thank you

Ilija Djugumanov

Co-Director of the Advanced Research Workshop Secretary General of Euro-Atlantic Council of North Macedonia

The technology associated with the Internet is said to evolve at the speed of light. That is certainly true when it comes to understanding the strategies and tactics used to commit cybercrimes, whether those crimes target military, governmental or private-sector organizations, and whether the threat actors are governments, government sponsored hackers, criminal cyber-gangs or individuals. In this paper, we examine recent evolutions of cyberspace threats to move them from simple and direct to more layered complex and stealthy methodologies. For example, what appears to be a ransomware attack encrypting files with the hope of collecting a ransom payment for a decryption key may actually hide the actual theft of that data, representing an actual data compromise. Suggestions for maintaining and improving an organization’s readiness to deal with these hybrid threats are provided.

The spectrum of current threat vectors is far more complex now than ever before. The current threat vectors are kinetic, asymmetric, dual-use, and hybrid, which renders it difficult to assess and, even, distinguish from a routine event. The threats not only jeopardize the security posture but also cyber defense capabilities, the very line of defense that is designed to protect against such threats. Countering threat vectors in multiple domains, viz., social, physical, and informational, is a major challenge and requires technology augmentation to assess, act and thwart such persistent and pervasive threats. The use of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), data analytics (DA), and deep learning (DL) provides tools that enhance cyber defense capabilities. In addition, certain initiatives on decision support systems to enhance resiliency, such as heuristics expert elicitations and analysis, and also capacity building through technology accelerator networks are discussed to enhance capacity and capability in support of cyber-defense. The use of technology platforms can present certain challenges, which are described.

The cyber space gave the concept of hybrid warfare a new meaning, particularly with the advancement of technology and the implementation of AI algorithms in many spheres of public life. This article explores the legal and ethical sides of their use in hybrid warfare. It argues that there is currently a lack of overlap between both which results to dangerous consequences for the human mind – the new battlefield of hybrid warfare. The content is divided into six parts: first, an introduction, presenting the problem of AI in hybrid warfare; second, a definition of AI and a discussion of its applications; third, an overview of the significance of hybrid warfare in the digital age; fourth, a description of the two types of AI in hybrid warfare; fifth, an analysis of the ethical and legal aspects of AI in hybrid warfare; sixth, a conclusion about the path forward and what the international community can do to mitigate the issue.

The contemporary security reality in which NATO operates is highly uncertain and unpredictable. Both state and non-state actors have proven that by abusing modern technologies they can compensate their inferiority to the Alliance in advancing their objectives that challenge the democratic world that NATO is trying to defend. The pursue to develop and deploy artificial intelligence applications and systems to achieve political objectives has brought the security threat vectors to the Alliance security to a whole new level. These developments have urged Alliance’s leaders to strategically approach to development and potential deployment of artificial intelligence. The new NATO strategy for artificial intelligence provides a framework for the alliance leaders to unsure NATO’s competitive advantage against peer competitors. However, the operationalization of the strategic guidance is an imperative task for the Alliance leadership.

The progress of information and communication technology has a positive impact, and it is a part of our everyday activities. In the same time, it presents an attack vector and vulnerability used by attackers to generate advanced cyber threats. Attackers use new and advanced tools to perform cyber-attacks, including AI-based malware, and in most of cases, they are ahead of the cyber defenders. The tools and attacks used by attackers require extensive time if analyzed manually and require significant automation so cyberspace can be effectively defended. As one of the best tools for the first line of defense is AI (Artificial intelligence)-based cyber defense mechanisms that can be used to react proactively (before the cyber-attack) or reactively (during the cyber-attack) in order to detect, restrict and stop the attack. This chapter gives a brief review of the usage of artificial intelligence as the first line of defense in cyberspace, using the model of defense in-depth, presenting AI-based tools and applications that already exist and are used for cyber defense.

The future of mobile and Internet technologies envisions advances beyond the existing scope of science. The concepts of automatic driving and machine-type communication are quite sophisticated and require the upgrading and improvement of the current mobile infrastructure. 5G mobile technology serves as a solution, although there is no approximate network infrastructure to meet the service guarantees. The mobile network is today’s demand, and the telecommunications industries are creating new infrastructures and technologies to provide more benefits to end-users and to meet their demands. Compared to the 4G network, 5G provides many new security features and has more sophisticated and robust security mechanisms, although there are still many potential security issues with the 5G network. Therefore, security analysis of 5G infrastructure is very crucial. This article analyzes the security requirements of 5G business applications, network architecture, and user privacy. At the same time, it is a comprehensive study of various threats and solutions to ensure the security and privacy of 5G.

The reemergence of the geostrategic competition among others is highly focused on the development of autonomous technology and deployment of autonomous weapons systems. While technological development has always had a profound impact on international law, the structural limitations of the international regulatory regime limit international law’s ability to provide any course on these emerging technologies’ development. Striving to maintain competitive advantage some states have started serious programs in developing autonomous technologies. Moreover, they have launched strategic documents broadcasting their ambitions to deploy autonomous weapons systems. These and other developments have instigated vigorous legal debate ranging from calls to a complete ban of these systems to full support.

In prior publications relating to this presentation, we have looked at the general problems associated with artificial intelligence. But in this article, we will focus on one particular issue relating to artificial intelligence – the assumption by non-technology management that AI systems work as intended. While that may sometimes be true, assuming it to be true is, at best, ill-advised, and at worst, dangerous. There are multiple examples of artificial intelligence systems failing, ranging from bias (hopefully unintentionally) built into the algorithms, known as “implicit bias” to issues arranging from not clearly understanding the code that makes up the artificial intelligence application, including many years of open-source code and embedded libraries. This knowledge sometimes referred to as a “software bill-of-materials” or “SBOM”) is currently being recognized as vital. But while the evidence that artificial intelligence systems can and do fail, senior executives seem to operate in some instances as if these failure factors didn’t exist, or to simply assume that they had been factored in to the project, albeit without evidence of that fact. Ultimately, the authors believe that standards for such systems should include a full risk assessment.

There is new kind of aggression experienced by NATO and EU. The enemies, no longer launch large-scale military operations against them but instead resort to hybrid warfare. This article explores the hybrid methods and tools used, but also it investigates the long term approaches mainly by NATO and EU, but also from other actors.