Ebook: Analysis and Strategies to Counter the Terrorism Threat

Analysis and Strategies to Counter the Terrorism Threat consolidates the lectures delivered at an Advanced Training Course (ATC) in Tirana, Albania between 20-24 April 2009. The ATC was planned and executed by the Centre of Excellence – Defence Against Terrorism (COE–DAT) in Ankara, Turkey. The COE–DAT organizes numerous workshops and courses by bringing academic rigor and institutional expertise on the subject of terrorism to the attention of interested parties in NATO, the Partnership for Peace (PfP) countries, the Mediterranean Dialogue countries, and others.

The COE-DAT was officially inaugurated on 28 June 2005 and was certified as a NATO-accredited COE by the NATO Council on 14 August 2006. The COE-DAT is unique in NATO as a center for defense against terrorism to provide training and education at strategic and operational levels as well as to contribute to research activities. As part of its education and training curriculum, the COE-DAT provides training in selected countries by conducting Advanced Training Courses within the framework of NATO's Science for Peace and Security Programme. It was along these lines that an ATC on the subject of “Analysis and Strategies to Counter the Terrorism Threat,” was conducted by COE-DAT as the fifth ATC.

The ultimate goal of the five-day program was to enhance international cooperation in the fight against terrorism by providing necessary guidance to promote standard training and basic skills for Partner Nation officials. The strategic aims of this advanced training course were two-fold: first, to provide a forum for exchanging views on the latest developments in the area of threats posed by terrorist organizations, their impact on the national, regional, and global security environment, as well as the ways to prevent, deter, counter, and respond to it; second, to promote a wide-ranging partnership of cooperation and dialogue in the fight against terrorism in order to boost transparency, mutual confidence and the capacity for common and concerted actions and measures. The objectives of the ATC were to inform participants about the causes and the dimensions of terrorism; to introduce strategies to counter the terrorism threat; to examine in detail different cases related to countering terrorism; and to explain the efforts of NATO and the United Nations to counter terrorism.

This volume presents eleven papers drawn from a pool of the lectures and case studies presented during the ATC with a view to giving the readers an analysis, and different aspects, of the strategies adopted in countering terrorism. The profile of authors includes academics and also professionals who are carefully based on their areas of expertise.

In the opening address of the Tirana ATC, Colonel Mete Tahmisoğlu from the COE-DAT emphasized that terrorism is one of the world's most serious security challenges. He also argued that terrorists try to exploit ethnic and religious conflicts, ideological differences and instability within societies; Colonel Tahmisoğlu also emphasized that the most important path to success in combating terrorism would be the effective use of international relations and pooling global counter-terrorism efforts.

The course's first paper presented by Ms. Zeynep Sütalan set the stage for later discussions by giving an account of events in the history of terrorism in four waves, and then exploring the four root causes for terrorism.

The second paper, presented by Andreas Blum, looks at the relationship between organized crime and terrorism, and how strategies against the financing of organized crime can be extended to also cover the fight against terrorism.

Professor Robyn R. Mace's contribution, the third article, examines the value of strategic communications, especially with regards to their use by security forces, in maintaining order and countering terrorist messages.

In two separate presentations, Major Julian Charvat first addresses the methods whereby a terrorist organization can create and then exploit an IED event. The second article addresses how a terrorist group could gain access to WMD for use in their attacks. However, both of these papers have also good news in that security forces are indeed capable to counter these specific threats.

In the sixth paper, on the evolving terrorist threat, Jolene Jerard outlines the evolution in terrorism by defining four types of terrorists, and then focuses on smaller groups and individual “home-grown” terrorists, but shows how they gain strength for world-wide inter-connectivity between terrorists, mainly using the Internet.

The seventh piece, written by Colonel Ömer Akdoğan and Colonel Oğuz Kulpcu, looks into the role of intelligence in the fight against terrorists, stressing how the nature of the terrorist threat demands an equally robust intelligence effort.

Keith Spence's paper, being the eighth paper presented in the ATC, examines the suicide bomber, focusing on the motivations and the link to the religious basis for such action, finding the tie tenuous at best but more closely connected with an indoctrinated basis.

The topic of rules of engagement (ROE) is the subject of the ninth paper by Colonel Osman Aytaç who looked into the sources and types of rules that must be considered at various operational levels in the fight against terrorism.

The tenth paper by Colonel Uğur Ersen looks into the methods used to terrorist groups to recruit members and how this will change based on the characteristics of the targeted population. The article also examines the reasons for the need for continued recruitment in terrorist organizations.

The final paper, again by Ms. Zeynep Sütalan, discusses the emerging trends in terrorism and outlines that there is both change and continuity in terrorism since it is a historical phenomenon that continues today.

This book covers the different aspects and dimensions of terrorism and wide-ranging strategies to counter this threat. In the current globalizing world, the reach of terrorism has grown wider. No nation or culture can achieve peace and security at home while ignoring terrorist threats posed to other nations. Therefore, it is hoped that training activities such as the one in Albania and similar collaborative projects will assist multinational efforts to combat the threat of global terrorism.

Mustafa Kibaroğlu

Academic Advisor

M. Uğur Ersen

ATC Director

Terrorism has been on the world scene for ages. It is not something new or unaccustomed. Terrorism breeds in any environment it can. Thus, it is hard to identify one specific cause or just a few that result in terrorism. Different types of terrorism in different cases can derive from different causes. Despite the difficulty in identifying causes of terrorism, a comprehensive approach towards the political, social and economic environment where terrorism is likely to flourish may result in fruitful outcomes for combating terrorism. Within this context, this article aims to provide a general framework for understanding the history and causes of terrorism rather than proposing methods to cope with them.

To facilitate a detailed analysis of the various dimensions of terrorism, it would be helpful to do a general threat assessment of terrorism and to discuss the leading global problems both today and in the future that may affect terrorism. Terrorism is currently a lethal, destructive phenomenon with the potential to cause massive casualties. Advances in counter-measures, however, have not progressed at the same pace. Concerns about cyberterrorism and terrorist access to Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) are increasing. Accordingly, this paper will examine four key subjects: cyberterrorism, WMD, the media, and legal dimensions of terrorism.

This article addresses the concept of strategic communications and their importance in the fight against terrorism. Strategic communications are an important vehicle for public security organizations to maintain an information flow to, and positive image with, their publics, since these organizations may be the most visible organization in a crisis situation. However, effective strategic communications in crises situations stem from adequate preparation and practice. It is also crucial that strategic communications be integrated with other efforts, particularly with the variety of formal and informal media available today.

This paper discusses the Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Cycle and looks at the points of exploitation for security forces in defeating IED networks. It will consider the basic modus operandi of a terrorist organization setting an IED. It will not consider the practical elements of IEDs themselves and will remain at the unclassified level. It is a summary of the COE DAT CIED Course and the conclusions drawn from it.

This paper discusses the possible intentions of terrorist groups to use WMD and the possibilities they may have for obtaining them. It also discusses NATO's response to the WMD threat and the capabilities it has to prevent and deal with any such action.

In order to be able to combat terrorism, it is necessary to understand that the terrorists are networked on a global scale. Even smaller groups and individuals are able to radicalize themselves through the Internet and other forms of mass media. The terrorists are able to exploit this interconnectivity to recruit and retain members by creating interlinked communities of trust that sustain the effort and provide support and a sense of belonging to members. Therefore, it will take a globally-coordinated effort to combat terrorism effectively. The global war on terror has dominated both domestic and international discourse. The methodology for combating and mitigating the threat of potential terrorist attacks has primarily rested on the operational domain. The networked nature of the global terrorist threat has often been a subject of concern. This paper will explore the practical reality of a social network and what it means to the extremist and terrorist community and in addition, the wider contextual realities that have ensured the sustenance of the threat of the global terrorist network.

This study emphasizes the role and importance of intelligence in countering terrorism and demonstrates the requirements of modern intelligence in combating terrorism. This study also demonstrates the increasing threat from global terrorism and the new challenge which the intelligence community faces today. This article shows that the absolute successes against terrorism require strong intelligence capabilities, intelligence fusion and international intelligence cooperation. Finally, this paper tries to give some advice on how good intelligence should be provided and used.

Analysis of media coverage and political responses to the suicide attack on the NATO (ISAF) headquarters in Kabul, Afghanistan on 15 August 2009 illustrates the presence of a pattern of established conventions that structure the representation of suicide terror events. The framework described by these conventions incorporates a range of implicit but deeply inscribed assumptions concerning the origins and motivations of terrorists in general, and suicide terrorists in particular. These assumptions predate the events of 11 September 2001, but received their clearest articulation in the aftermath of the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks. The vocabulary associated with the “War Against Terror”, and the constructions of terrorism and terrorist to which it gives rise, are identified and contested through discussion of available demographic data pertaining to suicide terrorism, to the discourse of the “clash of civilizations” associated with the work of S. P. Huntington, and to the paradoxically commensurable self-presentation of suicide terrorists themselves. Analysis of these materials significantly undermines accounts of cause and motivation that seek to explain suicide terrorism in terms of religious fundamentalism and economic deprivation. Disputes concerning global military policies, and claims against perceived territorial interference, emerge as being of greater significance. The conventions established within the prevailing assumptions and frameworks adopted in the course of media productions are, however, firmly established and not readily susceptible to adaptation or control. By critically challenging this established framework, however, and exposing its assumptions and limits to scrutiny, the possibility of redescription, and over time to the reframing, of currently prevailing perceptions and representations of both terrorism in general and suicide terror in particular, can be envisaged but not guaranteed.

One of the best tools available to policy makers to help manage armed forces during crisis is a set of orders known as rules of engagement (ROE). ROE are guidelines specifying under what conditions or circumstances force may be used to satisfy political and/or military demands. Tension inescapably exits in a system that subordinates armed forces under civilian control while retaining military command. Managing this tension by delineating the boundaries of military action in support of political objectives is another major role of ROE. There are vital links between the strategic and tactical levels of conflict. The strongest of these links are often rules of engagement (ROE); ROE enable mission accomplishment, force protection, and compliance with law and policy. ROE is a kind of tool for politicians to control the level of the “use of force” by the military. ROE are also a kind of tool for military commanders to command and control their units in order to fulfill the requirements of their mission. The ROE for counter terrorist operations are different than wartime ROE in terms of applicable law and the political desire which is less provocative in order to minimize the possibility of escalating the political situation.

Terrorist organizations need to recruit new members in order to survive and continue their actions. They have several reasons for recruiting new individuals. Recruitment is clearly the lifeblood of terrorist organizations and countering recruitment is key to success in the defence against terrorism. Accordingly, the aim of this paper is to provide information on important aspects of the recruitment process used by terrorist organizations. Under this topic, we will discuss why terrorist organizations need recruitment, how becoming a terrorist may be attractive, characteristics of target population and recruits, recruitment methods and models, post-recruitment process and ways to counter recruitment. At the end of the paper, some recommendations to counter the recruitment of terrorist organizations will be provided.

This article discusses the future trends in terrorism by looking at the changing profile of terrorism in terms of ideology, organization and structure as well as the means and methods used in terrorism. First, the article examines how the ideologies used by terrorist organizations together with their goals and motivations have changed. Second, it elaborates how the organizational structure of terrorist organizations has changed with reference to the network and hierarchical structures of terrorist organizations. Third, the article is dedicated to look at the means and methods of terrorist organizations with special attention to the weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and suicide bombing. Other features of terrorism like cyber terrorism, the growing interconnectedness and interdependency between organized crime and terrorism and the nexus between piracy and terrorism is also addressed. As the final part, the article also touches upon as NATO's study on Multiple Futures, which is about the future threats that the Alliance will be facing in the 21^st century. In this context, the article argues that there is both change and continuity in terrorism since it is a historical phenomenon and intends to contribute to the discussions on the future of terrorism.