Ebook: Addressing Emerging Security Risks for Energy Networks in South Caucasus

Energy security has always been a top priority on political agendas, and remains one of the main factors of mutual interest to NATO and its partners. Inability to merge scientific, political and practical approaches on this issue has had detrimental effects for regional security. Insufficient exchange of information and a very limited interaction on energy security among scientific, private and governmental sectors needs to be dealt with urgently. At NATO Warsaw Summit in 2016, the Heads of State and Government noted that energy developments can have significant political and security implications for Allies and the Alliance, as demonstrated by the crises to NATO's east and south. A stable and reliable energy supply, the diversification of import routes, suppliers and energy resources, and the interconnectivity of energy networks are of critical importance and increase our resilience against political and economic pressure.

Therefore, an Advanced Research Workshop “Addressing Emerging Security Risks for Energy Flows over South Caucasus” took place on 5–6 of December 2016 in Tbilisi. It was organized by the General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of the Republic of Lithuania and Ilia State University of the Republic of Georgia with support of NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) program. Valuable assistance was provided by the Romanian Embassy in Tbilisi as NATO POC and the World Experience for Georgia. The objective was to provide a thorough review of the main emerging security risks to critical energy infrastructure (CEI) and address the issues set out in NATO Warsaw Summit Communiqué.

The event harnessed efforts of scholars specializing in energy security, practitioners dealing with energy infrastructure, safety and critical energy projects, industry representatives, NATO and EU experts, civil society and governmental agencies. The workshop was attended by the representatives of NATO, US State Department, the Ministry of Energy of Georgia, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia, NATO Energy Security Center of Excellence, NATO liaison office in Tbilisi, the General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of the Republic of Lithuania, Ilia State University, World Experience for Georgia, Vytautas Magnus University, Nazarbayev University, Graduate Institute in Geneva, Center of Strategic Studies under President of Azerbaijan, Data Exchange Agency of Georgia, Centre for Global Studies Strategy XXI in Ukraine, Center for study of Democracy in Bulgaria, Baku State University, Energy Charter, Jan Wyzykowski University, Startfor, Methinks and the European Geopolitical Forum

In the keynote speech, the Deputy Minister of Energy of Georgia Mrs. Mariam Valishvili underscored that the oil and gas pipelines, set through the strong western support including US, European and other NATO member countries, have played a significant role in preserving the political independence and economic development of the countries in the region by keeping them linked to the international markets and in the focus of international western interests. The importance of energy security at NATO and partners' political agenda was strongly highlighted in welcoming words by NATO senior expert Michael Gaule. The Commandant of the General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy col. Raimundas Matulis offered to look carefully at the lessons learnt in the Baltic States and expressed desire to share the experience in crafting credible energy security policy tools. The experts noted that a further extension of energy transit potential over the Southern Caucasus the Concept of Southern Gas Corridor has been conceived including SCPx, TANAP and TAP but also the Trans-Caspian and other Projects of common interest, to connect the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to Europe and the rest of the world by crossing the Caspian Sea and the Black sea. As co-director of the project Mr. Murman Margvelashvili noted, assuring the security of existing and potential energy flows over Southern gas corridor has been identified as one of the strategic interests for European Energy Security but it is also a major factor of security for the supplier and transit countries in the region.

The workshop consisted of six major panels along with field trip to Military Scientific Technical Center DELTA premises in Tbilisi. The panels addressed great number of issues placing a heavy emphasis on the importance of energy transit function of Georgia and South Caucasus. It reviewed the existing and future energy transit projects including Southern Gas Corridor (SCPx, Trans-Caspian pipeline, TANAP, TAP, AGRI, White Stream etc.), potential flows of oil and power. The areas of common interest and forms of cooperation between consumer (EU, Turkey), producer (Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan) and transit (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey) countries were debated. Furthermore, new security challenges raised by increased terrorist threat and potential military actions or induced political instability, in view of current state of technology development were analyzed through the threats to new strategic energy transit projects in the region. There was discussion on the recent trends in technology for damaging and protection of critical energy infrastructure and readiness of the countries to respond to the challenges raised by new technologies. The participants identified the potential forms of cooperation for security, between the countries of the region and NATO at different levels to provide adequate strategic and tactical safeguards against emerging threats.

The article overviews the threats and challenges the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) faced in the energy security sector since the re-establishment of their independences in 1990 and 1991. The article briefly defines the course the Baltic States took in energy governance and problems they faced in domestic level and multilateral cooperation while implementing regional energy security projects. The article underlines the importance of strong international institutions which play their roles in implementing energy security projects, like the European Union. The article also mentions the importance of NATO, an institution allowing Lithuania to shape energy security discourse. The lessons of the Baltic States should be taken into account by the states of the South Caucasus region allowing them to avoid challenges and pitfalls the Baltic States faced and implement their energy security policy more efficiently.

This intervention outlines the relevance and potential of the Energy Charter Treaty for the South Caucasus; for Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. The Energy Charter is an example of a means of energy cooperation that has already existed in the South Caucasus for over 20 years. It discusses the problems that may arise in the South Caucasus, of what fault lines may develop among different economic spheres. In that context the author also discusses the new International Energy Charter, a new political declaration based on the principles of the Energy Charter Treaty as a good example of regional and international cooperation.

The article discusses the state of play of energy security issue in NATO's in order to reveal the potential for any practicality in terms of regional cooperation with Partners. The article briefly defines the perception and importance of energy security in current security debates and provides a retrospective analysis of the energy security discourse development in NATO. The article argues that despite the fact that NATO has rather limited role, the so called Golden Energy Triangle formula with a strong Education and Training charge applied by NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence could provide a further impetus and windows of opportunities for further development of South Caucasus region cooperation on energy security.

This intervention covers an intensified regionalization process in both Central/Eastern Europe and the Caucasus which will be an important feature as the Russia-West standoff evolves. Of course, both regional blocs are likely to face their own challenges and constraints; the Russia-Turkey relationship will have important bearings on political dynamics in the Caucasus, just as political volatility in Ukraine could complicate its energy and security integration efforts, and the EU and NATO will by no means completely cease to be active in this region. Nevertheless, the growth of regional cooperation in Eurasia is likely to be an increasingly prevalent phenomenon in the coming months and years.

The legal and political complexities affecting the Caspian Sea are critical to understanding the possible role of the South Caucasus as an energy gateway for Europe and Turkey. Uncertainty over these features can be detrimental to both the stability of existing supplies and to the ability to plan other developments in the future. This chapter examines the ongoing negotiation of a legal and political order as two analytically distinct, though empirically intertwined, processes aiming, on one hand, to formulate the formal rules pertaining to the sovereign rights and obligations of coastal states; on the other, to clarify whose interests the informal rules of the basin shall ultimately embody.

The intervention focuses on the role of Azerbaijan in shaping regional cooperation for energy security. Azerbaijan having faced with existential threats to its security after the newly acquired independence had found an escape in opening the country's rich oil and gas reserves to international exploitation, foreign direct investments that enabled the rejuvenation of the country's torn economy. The country has come a long way ever since having weathered the hardships brought by the challenges of transition as well as the burden put on its economy by large body of IDPs and refugee population in the aftermath of the ongoing conflict with the neighboring country. This affects regional security policy in light of energy.

The article focuses on the case of Ukraine, particularly referring to the time, when Ukraine lost its energy infrastructure in March 2014, three weeks after the start of the Russian invasion into Crimea. The Naval Forces of Ukraine were blocked in the bays of Sevastopol and Donuzlav. Drilling and gas extractive platforms were captured by the Russian paratroopers, who landed on the platforms. The loss of 1.6 bcm of gas from the national production of total 21.5 bcm was not very sensitive for Ukraine, as that gas was supplied for the peninsula only. However, Ukraine lost almost all marine gas production infrastructures, which had been developed in Ukraine since the 80th. It was the first but last success of the Russian forces in capturing the energy infrastructure.

The South Caucasus is a region of strategic importance for European energy supply. Therefore, energy security is so high on the agenda of both NATO's and EU's relations with the regional states. However, energy security and geopolitics are bound to remain “innately correlated” in the South Caucasus, because of: the persistence of the unresolved conflicts; the Russian double-play, and manipulative policies; the negative influences from clashing regional powers interests in the neighboring Middle East; the undetermined international status of the Caspian Sea. The current geopolitical fragmentation of the South Caucasus seems to be evolving towards increasing regional energy security fragmentation. In this context, the prospects for regional energy cooperation are rather blurred and uncertain, while they will remain dependent on the prospects of continued geopolitical confrontation in the South Caucasus. However, post-conflict energy security regional cooperation scenarios can offer a sound framework for intra-regional confidence building, and for developing blueprints that could be implemented in the future. They could also play an important role in South Caucasus conflict resolution.

The paper is dedicated to Poland's energy policy which is aimed to ensure proper development of extraction, transportation and storage infrastructure and to boost investments in a modern energy-save technologies and products, as well as limiting dependence on supplies from other countries. It covers some retrospective aspects, when Polish authorities put energy security among main tasks of the state. They were focused on the problem of stability and predictability of supplies due to dependence on import from one direction – Russia. The paper addresses also the aspects related to what has happened after Poland became a full fledged member of the EU and how it changed their perception – the European Union to become as a guarantee of the energy security.

Energy Security is an integral part of National Security and it should be understood as uninterrupted supply of quality energy at affordable price without compromising other interests of the country. Adequate risk management measures should be applied based on systemic approach including risk categorization, risk evaluation, accounting for seasonal variations and root cause analysis. Improvement of energy security is possible through a wide spectrum of soft measures.

The article explores the implications of conflict between Chechnya and Dagestan. It explains the evolution of the Dagestani-Chechen relations, their confrontation and psycho-cultural dramas; covers its recent developments and offers a path towards resolution. It outlines the key events which created a division, thus impacting on their harmonious cohabitation. The roots of their confrontation derive from historical injustice towards Chechnya as a result of forced deportation, unwillingness to revise the territories or accommodate the needs of the communities living in the disputed territories of Dagestan on the one hand. A series of external actions (such as the movement of Chechen troops into the Dagestani region—including armed raids in Borozdinovka in 2005 and 2008) substantiated anti-Chechen Dagestani sentiment. The article concludes that the Dagestani-Chechen relations need serious revision and intervention from regional authorities in addition to traditional local justice and reconciliation mechanisms. The research was supported by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Community Framework Programme