In order to face the challenge of changing market demand, it is necessary to reasonably predict the demand for urban freight distribution in Xiamen and solve the market development potential problem. Firstly, by using Pearson correlation test and multiple regression analysis method, this paper fully considers the influencing factors of demand prediction, and forecasts Xiamen’s urban distribution demand of postal services, and the urban distribution demand of grain and oil, fresh food, FMCG, etc. The forecast results show that by 2025, the total postal services will reach 28.2 billion yuan, and the urban distribution demand for grain and oil, fresh food, FMCG and other products will reach 38.5 billion yuan. Then, based on forecasting the future demand of Xiamen’s urban freight distribution, this paper analyzes the problems in the development of Xiamen’s urban freight distribution, and proposes solutions accordingly, aiming to promote the efficient and high-quality development of Xiamen’s urban distribution.