Ebook: Senior Leadership Roundtable on Military and Defence Aspects of Border Security in South East Europe

Preface

Dr. Itamara V. LOCHARD

C4I and Cyber Center of Excellence, George Mason University,

U.S. National Defense University,

NATO Country Co-Director of this NATO SPS Grant

The first cooperative agreement between a U.S. university and a Balkan institution was signed in November 2013. It was also the first on cyber issues. As the representative from the U.S. side, my goal in developing the partnership was to establish a hub in South East Europe (SEE) with the “General Mihailo Apostolski” Military Academy – Skopje, Associate Member of the University of Goce Delčev – Stip. The intention was this would assist in developing cooperation with others in the region in the form of academic exchanges, workshops, and joint events covering a plethora of security issues that impact Europe and the Alliance. During the initial years, I witnessed and participated in the many efforts by my partner institution and others in the host country. However, I found that there were not enough senior-leadership level discussions that could help foster the type of cooperation needed to address the regions' security challenges. With this idea in mind, and with the support of the Dean of the Military Academy Dr. Orce Popovski—who shared the vision of the role his institution could play and recognized the value for his country—the idea for this event was born.

It was initially conceived as a three-year, NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) grant to assess regional cooperation on the multiple, military and defense cross-border issues that impact the region. Upon consultation with NATO, a decision was reached to create a “senior-leadership roundtable” to test regional appetite for such collaboration prior to committing to a three-year engagement. This was the first NATO SPS “senior-leadership roundtable” in SEE. The purpose was to elicit the buy-in of senior regional members as they would not engage in a “course” or academic workshop, yet their presence was crucial to foster needed discussion as was the flagship of NATO SPS sponsorship.

On 23–30 September 2017, the NATO SPS “Senior Leadership Roundtable on Military and Defense Aspects of Border Security in South East Europe” finally took place in Berovo, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia after three years of planning.

Turkey recognizes the Republic of Macedonia with its constitutional name.

Delays were due to this being a new approach to NATO SPS activities in the form of a “senior-leadership roundtable” as well as to the very hybrid nature of the topic. Political factors also played a role as the U.S. Department of Defense, under which the U.S. National Defense University resides, had never executed a NATO grant before and there were many legal, fiscal, and procedural obstacles and approvals required to do so. In addition, the sudden change in government in the host country led to a final postponement so as to allow participants from the new government to be selected to participate.

This senior leadership roundtable was co-executed by the C4I and Cyber Center of Excellence at George Mason University (USA), the Center for Technology and National Security Policy at the U.S. National Defense University (NDU), and the “General Mihailo Apostolski” Military Academy – Skopje, Associate Member of the Goce Delčev University – Stip as the PfP country institution. Nearly 70 distinguished academics, legal experts, as well as current or former senior-level practitioners from various governments, NATO bodies, and international organizations took part. Among these were representatives from the following (in alphabetical order):

• AT&T

• Estonian Cyber Defense League

• George C. Marshall European Centre for Security Studies

• George Mason University C4I & Cyber Center of Excellence (U.S.A.),

• General Mihailo Apostolski Military Academy – Skopje / Associate Member of the Goce Delčev University – Stip (the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)

Turkey recognizes the Republic of Macedonia with its constitutional name.

• Kroll Forensics

• National Defense University of Serbia

• NATO Allied Command Transformation

• NATO Defense Education Enhancement Program (DEEP), NATO HQ

• NATO HUMINT Center of Excellence

• NATO StratCom Center of Excellence

• NATO Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE)

• Serbian Academy of Criminalistics and Police Studies

• Sandia National Laboratories, U.S. Department of Energy

• U.S. Joint Special Operations University

• U.S. Military Academy at West Point

• U.S. Office of Naval Research

• U.S. National Defense University

• United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR)

• United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Institute (UNICRI)

• University of St. Kliment Ohridski – Bitola, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Ibid.

• University of Niš – Serbia

• University of Sarajevo – Bosnia and Herzegovina

• Government representatives from the SEE region (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,

Ibid.

Greece, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia)

Representatives from Kosovo were invited but did not take part.

• Government representative from Norway

A keynote presentation the first day focused on detailing the advent of the fourth industrial revolution as well as the role of the SEE and Alliance in that process. It was delivered by Dr. Linton Wells II, who had been U.S. Chief Information Officer and Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense of Network Information and Integration (ASD/NII) in charge of the US$80 billion cyber budget of the United States, Distinguished Research Professor and Director of the U.S. National Defense University Center for Technology and National Security Studies, and NATO Transformation Chair. He is currently a Distinguished Research Fellow at U.S. National Defense University as well as Executive Advisor to the C4I and Cyber Center of Excellence at George Mason University. In addition, Mr. Mark Laity the Chief of Strategic Communications for NATO SHAPE spoke to the audience on both the pivotal role of the region and communications. He drew upon his extensive career which included coverage of the breakup of Yugoslavia for NATO as well serving as advisor to the first president of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

Turkey recognizes the Republic of Macedonia with its constitutional name.

U.S. Brigadier General (retired) Russell D. Howard who founded the Counter-Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and was Dean of their Social Sciences department detailed the role of criminality and terrorism routes in the region and its implications for security. He is currently a Senior Fellow at the U.S. Joint Special Operations University.

Presentations and discussions covered the following areas of military and defense aspects of cross-border threats: terrorism and violent extremism, cyber issues, weapons trafficking, academic and other cooperative efforts, behavioral and organizational assessments, border and criminal institutional challenges, models of development, technological and cyber solutions, cooperation mechanisms, research models being employed at the government level to assess hybrid threats, hands-on technical demonstrations, as well as case-study presentations on national and cooperative efforts. Finally, ample time for break-out sessions facilitated open dialogue among speakers and participants focused on problem solving and partnership development to yield the best input. Given time constraints, some excellent presentations unfortunately do not appear in this book. What follows is a brief summary of their research.

Mark Laity's “Working Together We Succeed: Getting the Story Right and Organizing for Success” discussed strategic communications, military needs, and organizational requirements SEE leaders must factor to address contemporary security challenges in SEE and partnership opportunities. Mr. Laity's comments were particularly well received given his reputation in the country and in the region from his previous positions mentioned earlier. Dr. / Reverend Carrie Pemberton-Ford represented the United Nations Institute for Training and Research and is the Director of Research and Institutional Development at the Cambridge Center of Applied Research in Human Trafficking. Her presentation, “The Trouble with Securitization: Myths and Realities of Irregular Migration, Trafficking, and the Threat to National Security” discussed the role of migration as a national security issue rather than just a humanitarian one. Her focus underscored how migration issues are regularly slated to the Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR) basket without enough consideration to how it comprises an intrinsic hard-security concern. This controversial and interesting perspective fostered discussion throughout the entire week.

Dr. Nikola Dujovski, Vice-Dean and Associate Professor of Security Studies, University St. Kliment Ohridiski – Bitola, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Ibid.

also presented on migration and security, “Illegal Migration and Terrorism Threats in SEE: Organizational Analysis and Solutions.” COL (Norway) Torre Andersson as the defense attaché to the host country highlighted the important role of non-regional partners in SEE in his talk on “Regional Cooperation: A Pragmatic Approach.” This theme was also echoed in the Estonian “E-governance Model” presentation. Due to an illness, the speaker could not attend to deliver his presentation; instead, I created and delivered another one based on my previous multiple engagements in Estonia on this topic. Much discussion was raised as the Estonian model is frequently regarded as a means to reduce graft and increase national security during development. It was able to accomplish this in the post-Soviet era of independence by moving towards technology. Many questions spawned as a result from SEE government officials present.

LTC (Romanian, Army) Lucian Munteanu as the Chief of Concepts, Development, and Experimentation (CD&E) branch of the NATO HUMINT Center of Excellence (HCOE) in Romania presented on “Intelligence and Training Considerations for SEE Border Security Threats.” He provided an unclassified explanation of the role of human intelligence and cooperation to address complex threats related to military and defense aspects of border security. Several conversations ensued regarding partnership and research possibilities on topics covered in his talk. Finally, the Dean of Criminal Criminology and Security Studies at the University of Sarajevo Dr. Nedžat Korajli'c, and his Vice-Dean Dr. Jasmin Ačić, presented on the “Education of Leaders in the Security Sector in the Balkans.”

This presentation from Bosnia-Herzegovina was well received in that it was both frank and realistic assessment of the challenges that face leadership and education issues in the Balkans. Very forthright discussions ensued on the role of graft, corruption, fake diplomas, and plagiarism. In addition, the threats of terrorism and violent extremism as it exists in Bosnia-Herzegovina were laid out clearly as well as the restrictions of the legal and justice systems. This topic sparked much open dialogue on the real problems of the SEE in terms of leadership development in the security sector as well as how to address them. Dr. Lazar Gjurov, the PfP co-director of this grant and Associate Professor of Communications at the “General Mihailo Apostolski” Military Academy-Skopje, Associate member of University Goce Delčev – Stip of the host country also presented on “National Culture's Influence on Senior Leadership's Security-Related Problem Solving.”

The goals and outcomes of this senior leadership roundtable were to:

• Assemble an international and interdisciplinary group of speakers to interact with SEE senior leaders responsible for developing and implementing appropriate policies to these security threats.

• Provide a platform for collaboration to maximize limited resources, prevent duplication of efforts, as well as increase the speed and efficacy of decisions to address these emerging and dynamic, contemporary security challenges.

• Foster avenues of partnerships and mechanisms for development of protocols.

• Provide an intensive and interactive format for senior-level government, practitioners and experts; and enable the formation and strengthening of international expert networks.

• Facilitate dialogue between public and private sector leaders to share experiences, exchange knowledge, thoughts and approaches to develop networks of trust and cooperation to more effectively address fluid security dynamics.

• Provide a foundation of current NATO standards and procedures on these issues which is critical given SEE Partnership for Peace (PfP) countries actively take part in NATO-led operations.

• Publish the proceedings to increase dissemination of lessons-identified, potential areas of cooperation and other military and defense-related recommendations that emerge.

This NATO SPS grant achieved its goals and several spin-off projects were discussed at the Berovo 2017 event and are under development. And, as a mark of success, participants unanimously requested this be a yearly effort as there is currently no other regional forum for this discussion at a senior-leadership level with such an interdisciplinary mix of people that also carries the legitimacy of a NATO activity. Concomitantly, NATO DEEP took hold in the country at the same time; and the DEEP representative, Mr. Pavel Anastasov, was a speaker at our roundtable. His article appears in this book.

Since then, Mr. Michael Gaul, the NATO SPS program officer who greatly assisted in the awarding of this grant has moved to the Partnership for Peace Consortium PfPC, where a U.S. contingent manages all the funding for DEEP. This year, U.S. EUCOM has deemed the DEEP effort as one its top priorities for enhancing defense cooperation. Furthermore, the PfPC also co-sponsored an event on resilience at the C4I and Cyber Center of Excellence at George Mason University in April 2018 to which high-level members of the host country were invited and participated. As of the writing of this book, PfPC is also planning to host an event on hybrid threats in Skopje as well in 2018 in which I and members of my partner institution in the host country will take part.

Acknowledgements

First, I would to thank the team, the other organizing committee members of this NATO SPS grant without whom it would not have been possible: Dr. Lazar Gjurov (PfP country co-director), Dr. Orce Popovski (Dean of the PfP country institution), LTC Nikola Klentnikov, M.S. (PfP country institution), Dr. Jugoslav Achkoski (PfP country institution), and Dr. Dejan Rancic (organizing committee member from Serbia). Second, a special thanks goes to Mr. Michael Gaul for his assistance in developing and getting approval for this novel form of SPS grant within NATO and his encouraging efforts and comments throughout. In addition, numerous members of George Mason University, U.S. National Defense University, and U.S. European Command helped make this a reality. Since it was the first time the U.S. Department of Defense executed a NATO grant, multiple layers of approval were needed. I am particularly indebted to Dr. Linton Wells II and Ms. Trina Zwicker for their assistance, as well as Dr. Rebecca Goolsby, at the U.S. Office of Naval Research for supporting the research.

Among my European colleagues, I greatly appreciate Mr. Bekim Maksuti, Vice Minister of Defense of the host country for his support of my U.S. efforts the past five years and for spending two days at our event. Likewise, I appreciate the support of Mr. Mariusz Solis at NATO DEEP, Mr. Evariste Karambizi at the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), and General (Estonia, retired) Johannes Kert who encouraged in various iterations of this event over four years and supported this effort by recommending and sending various speakers. In addition, the excellent organizational support from Mr. Vlatko Kostenchev at Aurora Tours and Aurora Resort and Spa was invaluable to our success. Finally, a special note of gratitude is extended to Ms. Helen Sahk for her editorial and fact-checking assistance.

Abstract

Dr. Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, postulates that we are in a Fourth Industrial Revolution that will be characterized by “a fusion of technologies…blurring lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres” [1]. These commercial developments will impose social stresses, increase pressures for migration, and affect military areas such as command, control, communications, computing (C4), intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). It will also lead to proliferation of “small, smart, and cheap” weapons that can increase the cost of expeditionary operations. While most of these developments are outside government control, they must nevertheless be understood by national security decision-makers and incorporated into planning. The paper explores opportunities and risks for Southeast Europe (SEE).

Abstract

This paper explores what armed forces can do, should do, must do, and should not do, regarding border security and domestic contingencies. It provides historical examples to demonstrate the twin phenomenon of the militarization of civilian functions and the civilianization of military support in multiple countries. It argues these trends are increasing due to limited resources, public will, efficacy, and to new emerging threats including cyber. It also demonstrates how these issues are relevant to border security and migrant operations. The paper delineates and examines the six basic functions of defense support: a) emergency and disaster relief, b) law enforcement, c) special security events, d) essential services, e) counterinsurgency, and f) civil disturbances. It then concludes by forwarding a set of criteria for policy and military leaders to employ when determining whether and to what extent to use armed forces in defense support of these six functions. They include legality, lethality, risk, readiness, cost, appropriateness, capacity, and unique capability.

Abstract

This paper explores the challenges of attaining Command and Control (C2), required for success in military, defense, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) operations in current information environment (IE). It presents definitions of C2 and IE followed by a summary of Information age-trends that impact these operations. It then surveys some IE technological tools and how they have been exploited by adversaries. An examination of how the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has evolved to adapt its C2 architecture to varying crises ensues. Policy recommendations include: 1) adjustments to existing C2 architectures; 2) harnessing the role of transnational corporations; 3) recognizing a new theoretical paradigm wherein all actors can collaborate, compete, and conflict simultaneously on different topics; 4) developing networks, despite different security priorities; 5) developing a networked, interdisciplinary, information threat sharing center; 6) advocating digital fluency, digital literacy, cyber hygiene, and IE-awareness; 7) encouraging definitions and thresholds at national, regional, and NATO levels; 8) utilizing social network analysis cautiously to prevent data biases; 9) encouraging training and exercising at local, national, and international levels; and 10) applying other national and regional solutions.

Abstract

Globalization continues to intertwine the connections between people, organizations, and information, sometimes making life easier but at other times making problems more complex. The relationships between international criminal and terrorist organizations are a troubling example of this phenomenon. Groups motivated by radical ideology can fund their violent attacks through criminal means, and criminal enterprises are able to expand their influence and activities by leveraging new “customers” in terrorist organizations. This paper focuses on the nexus between trafficking and terrorism in the Balkans. First, it outlines the general similarities and differences between the two types of illicit organizations. Next, it describes the main types of trafficking—human, weapons, drugs, and contraband; and then adds antiquities trafficking to the “Big Five.” The threats posed by this complex problem set emerge through a discussion of specific examples of the nexus in the Balkans. The paper concludes by examining opportunities to disrupt the terrorism-trafficking nexus.

Abstract

Perhaps the greatest challenge to cybersecurity is that people are inherently behind each attack as well as its solution. Focusing on the three fundamental components of any organization—people, processes, and technology —and how to best use the strengths of each while minimizing weaknesses will lead to improved organizational reliability in dealing with cyber threats. This requires understanding and using the four Cs of people—collaboration, capacity, culture, and change—and the three Ms of process—models, metrics, and monitoring—to provide a roadmap for creating a high reliability organization.

Abstract

The paper provides a short history of social cyber-attack, trolling, bots, and other forms of malign information maneuvers in cyberspace. It discusses the problem of calming social hysteria in cyber-space and the social psychological obstacles to counter-messaging against virulent disinformation campaigns. It provides a brief overview of the history of trolling, the problem of commercialization of disinformation, and indicates areas of needed research to counter crowd manipulation and social hysteria propagation. This paper explains how the way forward in managing influence operations effectively through the promotion of research to assist in the development of new techniques in cyber diplomacy. These techniques are needed to mitigate the effects of trolling and crowd manipulation and develop greater community resilience to social hysteria promotion.

Abstract

This paper argues that the current and future security environment challenges require current and future leaders possess a new set of skills to prepare them for adapting to and addressing them. For the Armed Forces of nations, the most appropriate place to develop such skills is in their Defense Education institutions. Horizontal, network-centric approaches like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's Defence Education Enhancement Programme (NATO DEEP) provide a platform for NATO Allies and Partners to cooperate in order to help defence education institutions reform and adapt. It provides a flexible and efficient way to build capacity, teach cooperation, and develop common understanding of current and future challenges.

Abstract

In the paper that follows, several cross-border military and defense threats will be explored, particularly in view of UNICRI's role in advancing action-oriented research in the fields of crime prevention and criminal justice. Confronted by criminals who constantly find new ways of exploiting people and goods, the international community must remain at the forefront of identifying innovative responses to crimes affecting global security. As such, the present paper aims to contribute to the existing body of literature on current efforts to combat organized crime, illicit trafficking, terrorism, chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear risks as well as the misuse of technology, including artificial intelligence, and robotics.

Abstract

A common problem associated with the effort to better assess potential behaviors of various individuals within different countries is the sheer difficulty in comprehending the dynamic nature of populations, particularly over time and considering feedback effects. This paper discusses a theory-based analytical capability designed to enable analysts to better assess the influence of events on individuals interacting within a country or region. These events can include changes in policy, man-made or natural disasters, migration, war, or other changes in environmental/economic conditions. In addition, this paper describes potential extensions of this type of research to enable more timely and accurate assessments.

Abstract

This paper begins by tracing the itemization and sharing of threat information to ancient times. It then demonstrates how cybersecurity cannot be adequately addressed only by technology people and cannot be ignored because it is the core of warfare in the twenty-first century, renders the fog of war even foggier, and it is difficult to create “cyber borders.” The article also argues that cyber risk has greatly increased due to the Internet of Things (IoT), lack of sufficient security in new defense devices, and hackers. Recommendations are presented for developing a more robust cybersecurity architecture at the national and international levels which include various ways of sharing public-private information in this domain and incorporating a multitude of fields.

Abstract

This article describes the development and components of the Estonian Cyber Defense Unit or Küber-Kaitseliit, a voluntary force in the Estonian Defense League. It is distinct from the National Guard and serves as a force multiplier to support other military and commercial sectors of society as needed. The paper argues the key to its success is to invest into both technical and human factors and provide a well-considered legal framework that provides sufficient structure without inadvertently hampering flexibility and response required in successful cyber defense. It also posits that another critical element is to engage in a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach that includes collaboration and exercising with regional and international partners. Finally, it advocates for ingenuity and creativity as essential elements in finding solutions to address significant threats with limited resources.

Abstract

Regional cooperation in South East Europe (SEE) is of great importance today, yet various initiatives to stimulate it have not yet led to any significant results. This has undermined peace and stability in SEE. This paper considers various initiatives aimed at stimulating cooperation in SEE, including EU policies towards the region. It then discusses some aspects of regional cooperation, primarily economic. A multinational case study the Advanced Systems for Prevention and Early Detection of Forest Fires (ASPires) project is discussed in detail as a successful example of SEE cooperation on cross-border issues that have civilian, ecological, and defense implications.

Abstract

State-run agencies are responsible for dealing with migration of any kind. However, the current wave of migrants into Europe transiting through the Balkan peninsula is not only considered an issue of national interest, but also one of wider European security. This paper discusses how the land-locked transit area of the Republic of Serbia has addressed the complex of issues involved with this recent migration. It examines the laws and acts that have been developed, the role of crime, human rights issues as well as functional complications for the military and police. Implications for broader defense and military aspects of border security in Europe are highlighted throughout.

Abstract

This paper defines what “wireless” means in its distinct classifications and describes a number of the newest wireless technologies relevant to both the warfighter and the warfighter's enemies who range in levels of sophistication and cohesion. Additionally, it outlines how wireless technologies are increasingly more relevant to increasingly important aspects of government and military missions. Third, it discusses how such wireless technologies can mitigate one of the biggest challenges to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the world militaries—border and perimeter security. Finally, it demonstrates how Hastily Formed Networks (HFN) employed for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR) support military and defense aspects of border security, which can be applied to Southeast Europe (SEE). Recommendations include the development of a BalkanWeb.org app to increase coordination via crowdsourcing, crowd sharing, and collaboration.

Abstract

This paper discusses a distributed, multi-platform architecture of geographic information system (GIS) suitable for use in a variety of civil and military scenarios. Traditionally, GIS was seen a as a monolithic and platform-dependent application; as such, it was used by rather small group of professionals. With the development of computer hardware and availability of geospatial data in recent years, GIS evolved and adapted to new environments. Greater availability has led to its increased use in multiple areas. What was reserved for small group of professionals in the past, has now become available worldwide, using Internet on personal computers and mobile devices. This paper focuses on architecture specifications that allows distribution of geospatial data and functions to different hardware and software platforms. It does so by discussing the GiNis GIS framework and a GIS-based application for the mitigation of border security threats in Serbia, the Border Security System (BSS). Both were developed by the University of Niš. Other complementary tools that are used with this application are also detailed. The complex structure of armed conflict entails a variety of GIS user needs and profiles. Because of that, the paper will focus on defining roles and possible scenarios from the viewpoint of South East Europe (SEE) border security threats.

Abstract

This paper presents an idea for Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) approach to develop an Intelligence Information System (IIS). This approach offers better coordination among institutions involved in intelligence and thus increases effectiveness. It can also serve as a foundation for the establishment of an Integrated Intelligence System, which is based on services as software components. Five postulates that can serve as checklist for integration of SOA in IIS are presented.