This paper defines a hypothetical Law of capital accumulation that includes a growth rate of supply of labor force as a non-linear function of capital intensity. The main state variables are the labor productivity, unit value of labor force, employment ratio, and capital-output ratio. An application of an extended Kalman filtering to the U.S. macroeconomic data 1969–2002 and computer simulation runs demonstrate that long wave has been a viable pattern of capital accumulation.
The characteristic of the inertia scenario is a strengthening of the secular tendency of the general profit rate to fall. This is not accepted by the U.S. state and business leadership. The terrorist attack of the September 11, 2001 has served as a new powerful catalyst for a mobilizing policy that aims at a fast overcoming of the structural crisis and safeguarding the global dominance based on technological leadership.
The mobilizing policy enables, probably, overcoming the structural crisis, accelerating productivity growth, raising the general profit rate, reducing unemployment ratio in 2001–2010. The main leverage is freezing real wage under the conditions of the present war. This paper touches briefly the question whether the USA tend to participate in wars late in long boom and beginning of structural crisis.
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