The transportation industry is the second largest energy consumption sector in China and has become the main contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. To support the low-carbon development of the automobile industry, China has taken measures to replace traditional fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles. The reduction of carbon dioxide emission of new energy vehicles model is estimated in this paper, in which the driving situation, per 100km energy consumption, proportion of clean energy, gasoline emission factor and national average grid emission factor, etc. are all considered. The annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emission of a new energy vehicle is 2.24 tons and the annual emission reduction is 1.09 tons in 2020. Through correlation analysis, it is concluded that there is a high negative correlation between the average emission factor of the power grid and the proportion of green energy, and the correlation coefficient is −0.9662. The ownership of civil vehicles will be 457.16 million vehicles in 2030, and it will get to its peak in 2050. Besides, the peak of CO2 emission of civil vehicles will be got in 2030. Moreover, new energy vehicles charring new energy electricity is an effective way for the automotive industry to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization.
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