The geopolitical evolution of the MENA region has created a favourable environment for relative stability and sustainable growth, characterised by a moderately stable balance of power. The Covid-19 pandemic triggered a series of reforms: regional powers opt for self-restraint to reduce conflict risks, the MENA region reduces its dependence on fossil fuels, new growth models based on scientific innovation emerge and the Maghreb is united through the creation of a single market. However, stability in the region is still a dilemma for NATO. The economic boom has provided the governments of the region with the means to increase their military arsenals and offered extra-regional powers such as China and Russia the opportunity to acquire a stronger role in terms of arms sales and FDI.

This development may pose a threat to the security of the southern allies due to increased military capabilities and the risk of inter-state conflicts. For other countries bordering the Mediterranean, the modernisation and development of naval capabilities could be seen as a threat to NATO’s southern neighbourhood, but ultimately NATO should welcome the strengthening of its partners’ military and security capabilities, with the aim of turning partners into security providers rather than security consumers.