Net present value is the traditional approach to evaluate the financial viability of projects including large ones. Unfortunately, the NPV may mislead decision makers for two reasons. First, it does not take into consideration managerial flexibility which is the ability of decision-makers to react to upcoming information related to some uncertain events in a way that may change the project design and planning. Randomness based on standard deviation is usually utilized to accommodate such flexibility. Second, the NPV calculation relies on some fuzzy variables that are subject to imprecision or ambiguity such as the characteristics of the project cash flow and investment cost. The variability of these errors can also be represented in the volatility of the model. In such scenario, volatility would be randomness as well as fuzziness based. Researchers in the field propose to use project Investment and Project cost as fuzzy variables. We argue in this paper that both of these factors can be embedded in the randomness-based volatility factor. This paper investigates the use of the volatility factor as fuzzy parameter in a Real options approach to evaluate projects. Hence, the overall ambiguity would be represented in a combination of randomness as well as fuzziness to achieve acceptable evaluations.
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