

A Battlespace perspective on the depth of hybrid warfare as seen in Ukraine, has a backdraft and also the butterfly effect. Hyper accelerated reengineering or reinventing is required on all levels, strategic, tactical and operational. Hybrid warfare can only evolve if no interventions are installed such is the nature of this dynamic system. Intelligence preparation of the battlefield rests on multirole in a multi-operational theatre which would incorporate all these factions: civil wars, army factions, quasi-military units, partisans with outside support, insurgents, militarized criminal gangs, grounds for violent extremist organizations, communal and commodity riots, overall - General Lawlessness. Hybrid wars don't just “pop-up” they are a product of long-term “play”. Russia has been employing not only the military Instrument of Power (IOP) of the modern state, but also the economic, informational, and diplomatic IOPs in its hybrid threat construct. The deployment of long-term efforts on to Ukraine through “gas wars” to food embargo (introduced and then lifted) was to weaken, the already weak economy and political system. Denial, Deception, Provocation & Rumors are part of hybrid war-gaming (keeping in mind the recent investigation by Novaya Gazeta states that Russia is controlling the flow of jihadist in to Syria.) “Bratstvo” wants the war in eastern Ukraine to be a religious war. Like all hybrid warfare spillovers, Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the new government, its broken institutions and endemic corruption. So the need to take advantage of the situation has led them to state, that this can only be solved, by creating a national elite composed of people determined to wage a sort of Ukrainian jihad against the Russians. Noble or not many factions globally are fighting for “their” cause against “their” evil – affecting geopolitics, global security, and international relations and tearing the fabric of humanity. Forging a new consensus on a division of power and resources is a huge challenge and failure tends to lead to renewed strife giving the crisis another new complex face. Hybrid warfare has a successive cycle spanning borders. Being cognizant of what actions are taken today will determine the course of tomorrow.