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Beating the bookie: A look at statistical models for prediction of football matches
Helge Langseth
165 - 174
10.3233/978-1-61499-330-8-165
Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and Applications
Volume 257: Twelfth Scandinavian Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Abstract

In this paper we look at statistical models for predicting the outcome of football matches in a league. That is, our aim is to find a statistical model which, based on the game-history so far in a season, can predict the outcome of next round's matches. Many such models exist, but we are not aware of a thorough comparison of the models' merits as betting models. In this paper we look at some classical models, extract their key ingredients, and use those as a basis to propose a new model. The different models are compared by simulating bets being made on matches in the English Premier League.

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