This article presents two empirical studies investigating the extent to which intelligence analysts are able to integrate new information about the reliability of intelligence sources into their judgment. The first study used a limited number of pieces of intelligence, and binomial reliability values. The second study included a larger number of sources, and reliability values distributed on a 5-point scale. A comparative analysis of the results suggests that analysts are less likely to significantly modify their judgment if they are faced with a large amount of information to analyse, possibly showing the vulnerability of analysts' to heuristic biases in this case.
IOS Press, Inc.
6751 Tepper Drive
Clifton, VA 20124
Tel.: +1 703 830 6300
Fax: +1 703 830 2300 firstname.lastname@example.org
(Corporate matters and books only) IOS Press c/o Accucoms US, Inc.
For North America Sales and Customer Service
West Point Commons
Lansdale PA 19446
Tel.: +1 866 855 8967
Fax: +1 215 660 5042 email@example.com