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This paper describes a technique that could be utilized to estimate the probabilities and consequences required in vulnerability assessment for terrorist threats of civil works projects. The Expert-Opinion Elicitation (EOE) methodology developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is presented in detail. The USACE EOE methodology limits the use of words of estimative probabilities to reduce the anchoring bias that is present with qualitative descriptors. A demonstration vulnerability EOE example will as be included to show how the process and opinion data may be properly analyzed. Conclusions are drawn to show the major benefits of using the EOE methodology to estimate probabilities for vulnerability assessment.
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