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This paper discusses the importance of scenario development and analysis in support of long term defense planning in today's world. Today, the security environment is characterized by deep uncertainty. [Defense] forces may be engaged in a broad range of roles and missions; hence, force capabilities must be much more adaptive and flexible then was required during the cold war.
Consequently, planning what kind of capabilities nations desire/wish to have to support their defense ambitions and the decision making on what systems and doctrine to be fielded, requires a much more flexible approach then ever before.
A systematic approach to guide decision makers and a discussion on how the development of scenarios and scenario-analyses may support this process will be presented as a mechanism as of how to cope with today's challenges.
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