As a guest user you are not logged in or recognized by your IP address. You have
access to the Front Matter, Abstracts, Author Index, Subject Index and the full
text of Open Access publications.
The late Jan van Noortwijk (JvN) made valuable contributions in many areas such as Reliability, Risk management, Maintenance modelling, Applications to Decision theory and more. His contributions to model river discharges for flood prevention (van Noortwijk et al., [1, 2] and others) are of interest to forecast river stream flow. The posterior predictive densities for several distributions, which can be considered as candidates to model river discharges, were derived using Jeffreys prior. The Jeffreys prior was derived for these distributions by careful algebraic derivations of the Fisher information matrix. The posterior predictive density is the way we believe to follow for predicting future values once the best model is selected. Van Noortwijk et al. [1, 2] proposed Bayes weights for selecting the best model. The advantage of the posterior predictions over substituting the estimates of the parameters in the quantile function is discussed for a special case. A further application under regression in the lognormal model with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as independent variable, is shown for the annual discharge of the Orange River in South Africa. It implies the prediction of the SOI at least one year ahead through an autoregressive time series.
This website uses cookies
We use cookies to provide you with the best possible experience. They also allow us to analyze user behavior in order to constantly improve the website for you. Info about the privacy policy of IOS Press.
This website uses cookies
We use cookies to provide you with the best possible experience. They also allow us to analyze user behavior in order to constantly improve the website for you. Info about the privacy policy of IOS Press.