One of the factors affecting the quality of life of the citizens is the condition of the city roads; therefore, the asphalting of the roads is one of their basic needs as a facilitator of the citizens’ passage. In this research, an attempt was made to model asphalt wear with a system dynamics approach and predict it for the future based on different parameters. Modelling was done and the result was with a 25% decrease or increase in the initial raveling, the rate of raveling has decreased or increased between 5% and 10%, which shows that the initial raveling is an important parameter in the rate of raveling. In the design and construction of roads, special attention should be paid to initial raveling. Therefore, it should be noted that when negative scenarios happen, they have a greater impact and cause more deterioration. In addition, due to the fact that in this modelling, more formulas are used and it is also data-oriented, the current model can be used for different regions in different countries, provided that the data and items used in the formulas (such as asphalt standards, etc.) are entered into the model based on the conditions of the studied area.