This paper constructs a TVP-VAR model to identify the time-varying relationships among energy and environmental constraints, manufacturing export quality margin and export growth rate. The results show that: (1) The impact of energy and environmental constraints on the export growth rate of manufacturing industry is more significant than the marginal impact of export quality; in the short term, it will hinder the improvement of the export growth rate of manufacturing industry; in the long term, the innovation compensation effect cannot completely offset the crowding out effect, which makes the long-term negative effect of energy and environmental constraints on the marginal improvement of manufacturing export quality more significant, and the external impact will increase the crowding effect of energy and environmental constraints on the marginal improvement of manufacturing export quality. (2) There is no structural change in the impact of manufacturing export quality margin and export growth rate on energy and environmental constraints. Manufacturing export quality margin has a sustained negative impact on energy and environmental constraints, and manufacturing export growth rate has a sustained positive impact on energy and environmental constraints.