Solar arrays are one of the most important parts of a satellite that experience severe space weather conditions. In this study, using a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, we analyzed the risks of the solar arrays of geostationary (GEO) satellites. First, we conducted a detailed literature survey on “solar array risks.” Then, using the Space-Track database, anomalies that occurred between 1985 and 2015 on the solar arrays of GEO satellites were analyzed and used as inputs for risk assessment. We also defined an “overall risk value” as the combination of the probability of occurrence and the relative weight of the severity of each risk criterion. Finally, the risks were ranked and the five most critical ones affecting the performance of solar arrays were identified. The results confirmed that the conceptual modeling and design phases are extremely important steps in satellite projects. This article proposes a risk assessment method based in a combination of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and probabilistic risk assessment. A numerical application is presented to show that the results can be used to provide recommendations for risk reduction.
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