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In this paper, we represent uncertainty in the estimation of the parameters of an erosion law through different probability models including non-Gaussian models, and develop fragility curves for the surge-only overtopping erosion failure of an earthen structure with typical erosion parameters of a levee made of compacted fine-grained soil. Contrary to common practice in fragility analysis that assumes a prior probability model for the fragility curve, we found that the type of fragility curve depends largely on the type of probability models adopted for the design variables.
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