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In current geotechnical practice, slope stability calculations are usually carried out only based on deterministic methods, by obtaining a value of Factor of Safety (FS). These analyses can be seen as simplified as FS values do not consider the natural variability of soils and rocks properties. Disregarding the uncertainties inherent to geotechnical parameters may lead to unreliable results of slope safety. Probabilistic analyses, based on statistical concepts, have become recurrent in geotechnical practice, as they allow including the materials intrinsic variability. These analyses allow treating FS as a function and studying its properties. The probabilistic methods indicate the reliability index (β) and the probability of failure (PF) of the geotechnical structure to be analyzed. This work presents deterministic and probabilistic studies of a 200m high slope at the Cauê Mine, located in the Iron Region, in Itabira, Minas Gerais, Brazil, with basis on three standard deterministic methods (Bishop, Spencer and Morgenstern-Price) and three usual probabilistic procedures (FOSM, Point Estimates and Monte Carlo). The results indicate that fixing the critical deterministic failure surface usually gives values of β and PF similar to those achieved when the surface is free to vary [1]. It is also concluded that, with a fixed critical surface, β and PF results may change significantly, when different Limit Equilibrium methods are adopted. It is recommended to use probabilistic FOSM procedure with Morgenstern & Price technique in stability analyses similar to the one presented herein.
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