It has been known for some time that the factor of safety is of little physical significance. Attempting to predict future performance of geotechnical structures using the deterministic factor of safety is fraught with uncertainty and risk. Probabilistic analysis of slope stability can allow the quantification of the input parameter uncertainty and temporal forecasting to be more accurately achieved. Accounting for the spatial correlation structure of soil deposits is essential to proper estimation of probabilities of failure. The current study involves three-dimensional cluster analysis of Cone Penetration Testing with Pore-Pressure measurements (CPTu). The clustered data are to be used in an assessment of the autocorrelation statistics for lacustrine clay foundation soils of a water retention dyke. Dyke 17W is located at the McArthur Falls hydro-electric generating station owned and operated by Manitoba Hydro, located near Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. The results of the geostatistical analysis will be modeled as a random field in a probabilistic Monte-Carlo simulation.
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